"Japan's ability to stabilize its economy and begin slogging back is the absolute key to any comeback by the Asian economy as a whole," says Li Lu. "And also essential to the continued health of the U.S. economy."
Li Lu is Chinese, one of the leaders of the movement for freedom and democracy that climaxed in Tiananmen Square in 1989.He was a student in China then, one of China's best, brightest and bravest. After China's dictatorship crushed the freedom movement with tanks, he escaped to the United States.
He learned English, raced through Columbia University's undergraduate, business and law schools and now, nine years later, is a millionaire entrepreneur running a Wall Street hedge fund.
His is an amazing story, a great American success story with a Chinese accent. His appreciation for America and its people is deep. With it, he will return to China someday, a leader of its new Tiananmen generation.
But this day, he is talking with your reporter about Japan as well as China. China's economic future is closely intertwined with that of Japan, he points out. But not as closely intertwined as those of Japan and the United States.
Japan is the world's second most powerful economic superpower. It is not too much to say, as many in Washington and on Wall Street do, that as Japan's economy goes, eventually so goes our own.
And Japan's economy is now, officially, in recession. If the Japanese recession cuts much deeper and lasts much longer, and most especially if it sinks into outright depression (as much of Asia already has), then the U.S. economy will be significantly affected.
This is not a prediction of doom, says Li Lu. It is a yellow flag of caution about a building danger.
"The time is near when the United States must step in with a massive infusion of financial aid to Japan. When the moment comes, Americans should not be surprised," Li Lu said. "And they should understand that it's in their own interest."
He couldn't know how soon his predictions would start coming true about that, but for the moment he is at least as worried about Japan's economy as he is about what is happening inside China.
Over the long pull of history, China's importance to world peace and prosperity, and thus to the future of our own country, is immense.
But so is Japan's. And in the short to medium pull of history, what happens to Japan - especially to Japan's economy - is more important than what happens to China.
Li Lu, student hero turned millionaire and future Chinese leader, is watching closely. The rest of us should be, too.