Four years ago, when Steve Forbes first promoted the idea of a flat tax, he was ridiculed by his fellow Republicans. "A truly nutty idea," said Lamar Alexander. Others, like Bob Dole and Newt Gingrich, heaped scorn, calling it everything from "snake oil" to "voodoo."
But in last month's New Hampshire forum among five Republican presidential candidates, when the question "Do you favor a flat tax?" was posed, three candidates said they favored throwing out the existing federal income tax code and replacing it with a one-rate plan."Sure, I'm for a flat tax," said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who said he wanted a system so simple that a tax return could fit on a postcard. The conservative Gary Bauer boasted that his 16 percent flat tax was better than anyone else's.
And Forbes, who made the flat tax the centerpiece of his 1996 presidential bid but has in this race embraced other conservative social and global issues, said he was happy that other Republicans were "coming on board."
What a difference four years makes. The flat tax -- a single income tax rate for all American taxpayers instead of the current graduated set of rates -- is slowly gaining ground as a campaign issue in the Republican presidential race, much the way that school vouchers moved from a back-burner issue popular mainly among conservatives to one that is now embraced by all Republican candidates.
For Forbes, who advocates a flat 17 percent income tax, this is a bittersweet victory -- it means that other candidates are stealing some of his thunder, even though he can take credit for putting this issue on the political map.
So far, the idea has yet to filter down to congressional races, and the Republican front-runner, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, does not support it. But analysts say it has undeniably potent appeal.
"The flat tax is not quite Republican dogma yet," said Ed Gillespie, a Republican strategist and president of Policy Impact Communications, a public relations firm. "But it is something that most Republican candidates want to be for. The flat tax resonates strongly with core Republicans, and it has broad appeal across party and demographic lines."
Grover Norquist, executive director of Americans for Tax Reform, a Republican anti-tax group, added: "Not everyone will have a completely written-out plan like Forbes. But they are all saying, 'That's the direction I want to go."'
That direction is to reduce federal income tax rates across the board and provide a huge tax cut on a scale not seen in more than a decade. Tax experts on all points of the political spectrum say the rich will benefit more than the poor.