Word circulating around political circles has House Speaker Marty Stephens decided: He is most certainly planning to challenge popular Gov. Mike Leavitt for office next year.
But it seems Stephens, R-Farr West, is not much different than any other political pundit who tuned in late this week to news that Stephens is "strongly considering" a run at the gubernatorial seat:He and others are wondering what kind of chance he has, if he does run.
"I think it is shocking political news," said Ted Wilson, former Salt Lake mayor and head of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.
"I think it has the potential of deeply splitting the Republican Party and could play into the hands of the the Democrats who at this point have no hope against Gov. Leavitt."
Wilson said he is amazed that the right-wing of the Republican Party would be so brave as to go up against an extraordinarily popular governor.
"He's had to be moderate from where he sits, and I am sure that has alienated some people," Wilson said. " But frankly, it will be very, very difficult for Marty Stephens to pull that off."
Even GOP leaders wonder about the move.
"The governor is well-liked. It would be a tough, tough campaign for Marty," said Scott Simpson, executive director of the Utah Republican Party. "Among the general public, Leavitt is in pretty good shape. He's been a good governor."
But the delegates to state GOP conventions are not average Utahns, Simpson said. They are more passionate. They care more about specific issues. "They tend to be more conservative," he said.
"There may be an advantage there for Marty, but I don't know if it's enough to unseat a liked incumbent."
Leavitt had a rough time at the last GOP Convention, when his Republican colleagues yelled catcalls during a talk about his get-guns-out-of-schools positions. But Leavitt says the speech was an important one to make, and he made a deliberate decision to deliver comments he knew would have an "edge" to them.
Stephens said Friday he wasn't positive he'll run but that a diverse group of people have suggested he do so. At first it was conservative House members who encouraged him to run, but in recent months, support has grown to include a wide range of business people, public officials and people around the state. "They are not people who I would consider to be on the fringes," Stephens said.
Stephens says he's not sure if it's a "winnable" fight, but Republican lawmakers at different ends of the political spectrum say the 48-year-old banking executive has a good shot.
"There is real disappointment with the way things are being done," said Rep. Bill Wright, a Republican dairy farmer from Elberta who is one of the most conservative members of the House and part of the so-called "Cowboy Caucus."
"We have to look at things and ask if we want them to continue this way or if we want another option. I think a lot of us want another option."
Rep. Susan Koehn, R-Woods Cross, is a member of the moderate caucus in the House and has aligned with Leavitt on various issues in the past. Now she supports a Stephens' run for governor.
She can't speak for other members of the moderate group of lawmakers, but the number of people who've offered support to Stephens means "there must be some moderates represented."
But some still believe Leavitt's record popularity will triumph over any challenge. Utahns still like the job Leavitt is doing as governor; most want him to run for re-election in 2000. A Deseret News poll in May found Leavitt with a 78 percent approval rating, and 65 percent said they would vote for him if he ran for a third term.
So, could Stephens beat Leavitt?
"I don't think so. I just think Gov. Leavitt has everyone pretty much fooled as to what he's doing," said Elaine Tzourtzouklis, president of the Salt Lake Teachers Association and part of the Utah Education Association's Wasatch Front area.
"No matter what he does, everyone -- the majority -- think it's wonderful," she said. "I would like to see someone else run myself, someone more education-friendly."
Susan Kuziak, executive director of the UEA, has met with the governor periodically this year and has encouraged Leavitt's beefed-up education proposals.
Kuziak says Leavitt is more public about his support for education, but Stephens has tried to learn about education's concerns and has lent support to some of UEA's pet projects such as class-size reduction.
Neither she nor Tzourtzouklis could guess who would gain the support of the state's 19,000 teachers.
"We'll work with whomever the people elect as governor of the state because our responsibility is to provide the best possible education for the children in this state," added Eileen Rencher, spokeswoman for the State Office of Education. "It's the public's role to choose the governor."
One political observer said Stephens is out of touch with the wishes of the average Utahn. "When it comes time to go to the polls, people will remember he went against public sentiment on guns (in schools), wilderness and education."
Claire Geddes, a consumer rights advocate and close watcher of the Legislature, said the legislative session that begins in January will be very telling about how Stephens will serve the public needs -- and may help members of the public decide whether to support him.
"The public needs to watch very carefully what happens this session," she said. "That's when we'll know who is going to be consumer minded."