WASHINGTON -- More than a billion people -- nearly one fifth of the world's population -- lack safe, clean water, and the problem will worsen in the early 21st century, experts said Sunday.

Most of the projected water shortages in 2025 will be in Africa and the Middle East, but India, parts of China, Peru, England and Poland would also be affected, according to a newly formed commission that focuses on world water supplies.In all, the problem could afflict four dozen countries, it said.

A U.N. analysis found that 1.4 billion people now lack safe and reliable water. Water-related diseases kill from 5 million to 7 million people annually, experts said. The United Nations said up to half of the population of the developing world suffers at a given time from such diseases.

The assessments were released in preparation for World Water Day on Monday and to promote more efficient use of water.

Without adequate water supplies, food output would be imperiled, too. Agriculture accounts for most of mankind's water usage.

"Water is a more important limiting factor to agriculture than land," Hans van Ginkel, U.N. undersecretary-general, said in an interview.

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At present, 450 million people in 29 countries face water shortages, according to the water commission. The United Nations said shortages would touch 2.3 billion people, or 30 percent of the world population, in four dozen nations in 2025.

Much of the problem results from the world's patterns of settlement, experts said. Two-thirds of the world's people live in regions receiving one-fourth of the world's rainfall.

With the world population projected to grow by 3 billion people by 2025, the water commission said innovative solutions were needed to ensure that there will be enough water.

Some possibilities suggested by the commission were: making desalinization more affordable; finding better methods for discovering the great quantities of groundwater thought to exist untapped; increasing the use of recycled water; creating technology to transport water long distances; and breeding food plants that require less water.

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