PODGORICA, Yugoslavia -- As NATO bombs fall on Montenegro, the unhappy junior partner to Serbia in the Yugoslav federation, the democratically elected pro-Western government here is struggling desperately to retain its hold on power and maintain domestic peace.
"A civil war might begin here, with very grave consequences, if there are increasing civilian casualties from the air campaign," Radomir Sekulovic, a government spokesman, said Saturday.Even without reports yet of civilian casualties from NATO attacks on Yugoslav antiaircraft sites in this area, the atmosphere here in Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital, is tense. Government buildings are guarded by helmeted Montenegrin police wearing military-style uniforms and bullet-proof vests and carrying semiautomatic rifles.
"They are to protect government buildings against popular disturbances that might be provoked at this moment, taking into account the deep divisions in Montenegrin society," Sekulovic said.
There are two main scenarios for Montenegro under which it might descend into chaos: a direct move by the Yugoslav army against Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, who is the key domestic political enemy of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, or an insurrection by pro-Milosevic Montenegrins.
On Jan. 13, backers of Milosevic "tried to occupy government buildings by storming," Sekulovic said. "The police succeeded in defending the buildings. We have a lot of proof he (Milosevic and his backers) might do it again any time, any moment, and the propitious time to do it might be now, when we have the NATO bombing."
Supporters of Djukanovic want "as quick as possible integration of Montenegro and Montenegrin society into the world community -- for us this means Western Europe, to be integrated politically and culturally where we really belong," Sekulovic said. Milosevic supporters in Montenegro favor a more centralized Yugoslav state and look more toward Russia.
Sekulovic implied that the situation can remain stable here if NATO hits only antiaircraft military hardware. But significant numbers of civilian deaths could spell the end of Montenegrin democracy, he said.
"If even just a few civilians are killed in Montenegro," Sekulovic said, "we would not be able to shut down the pro-Milosevic media who say: 'Look, they are supporting people who are killing them.' The army might arm (angry civilians), and everything would go to civil war."
Once NATO has wiped out antiaircraft sites in Montenegro, it would be "a terrible mistake" for it to continue attacking Yugoslav army units based here, Sekulovic added.
"Something like that might anger even supporters of Djukanovic here," he said.
"As far as I know, Yugoslav army soldiers stationed here have not been turned against Kosovo," Sekulovic said, but if the attacks continue once air defenses are destroyed, soldiers will think that because they pose no danger to U.S. pilots, the Americans "simply kill because they like to kill."
Montenegro has not recognized the legality of the current government of Yugoslavia since last year, when Momir Bulatovic, a pro-Milosevic Montenegrin, became Yugoslav federal prime minister. Montenegro's government rejects the legality of Bulatovic's election.
The conflict between Podgorica and Belgrade has worsened since NATO bombing began Wednesday and the Yugoslav government declared a formal "state of war," which the Montenegrin government has refused to recognize.
In a televised speech last week, Djukanovic condemned Milosevic's "senseless policy of confrontation with the whole world."
"Montenegro did everything to prevent this suicidal adventure," he said. "The tragic epilogue of the crisis in Kosovo directly affects the peace in Montenegro, which is now the only reasonable voice in this region."
Djukanovic urged Milosevic to "halt his policy which has left innocent victims and threatens the survival of the (joint) state" of Yugoslavia.
"By introducing a 'state of war,' this illegitimate government in Belgrade not recognized by us wanted to abuse constitutional provisions connected with the proclamation of the 'state of war,' " Sekulovic said.
"Those provisions speak clearly about dismissal of civilian authority and legal civilian institutions anywhere in Yugoslavia, including Montenegro, and introducing a state of emergency that would legally give all powers over the state and citizens of Montenegro into the hands of the Yugoslav army," he explained.
"I would not be here," he added. "A military officer would be here to talk to you and say, 'Ten NATO planes were shot down over Montenegro, and 20 pilots were captured' and so on and so on."
While fighting desperately against imposition of martial law here, the Montenegrin government has responded to the current crisis by imposing what it calls "obligatory working duty." Under this requirement, a baker, for example, must by official government order show up at work to bake bread.
A Podgorica resident who spoke on condition of anonymity said this requirement is not a form of war mobilization but just the opposite: If the Yugoslav army tries to draft men into the military, they can respond that they are under government order to report to work.
In an effort to keep the situation under control, Djukanovic's government hammered out a compromise with the pro-Milosevic opposition on a resolution approved overwhelmingly by parliament Friday that calls on citizens to maintain peace among themselves.
The effect of this compromise, at least for the moment, Sekulovic said, is that "we civilian authorities, pro-NATO guys, will continue to do our jobs, and you guys against NATO -- we recognize that we have to live together."
The Montenegrin government cannot take a more aggressive pro-Western stance "for the simple reason Montenegrin society is so deeply divided," Sekulovic said. He added that its recent actions might be seen by some as a serious failure to support the Yugoslav war effort.
"I would not be very surprised if they come and say: 'Look, there is bombing. This is treason,' " Sekulovic said, forming his hand into the shape of a gun and pulling the trigger.