WASHINGTON -- In the absence of U.N. inspectors, Iraq has reconstructed some U.S.-bombed buildings associated with its weapons of mass destruction program, but there is no evidence weapons production has resumed, the Clinton administration says.
While the Pentagon says the intelligence picture of Iraq is fuzzy, many foreign policy analysts believe Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has used the inspections respite since December to push a covert weapons program."Given the determination that he showed" in defying the U.N. inspectors since the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, "I would assume that is what he's doing," said Lauri Mylroie, an Iraq specialist and vice president of Information for Democracy, a nonprofit Washington-based research institute.
Washington contends that as long as U.S. economic sanctions remain in place and U.S. and British aircraft enforce "no fly" zones over northern and southern Iraq, Saddam has little room or opportunity to resurrect his military in a major way.
Still, analysts believe Iraq is pursuing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons as well as the missiles to deliver them.
"There's a real problem here," said Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Late last month, he wrote a report on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
"Iraq retains the technology it acquired before the war and evidence clearly indicates an ongoing research and development effort" on missiles, Cordesman wrote, adding that photographs by U.S. spy satellites show Iraq has rebuilt its al-Kindi facility for conducting research on ballistic missiles.
Defense Secretary William Cohen's spokesman, Kenneth Bacon, confirmed that Iraq has rebuilt some buildings associated with its weapons program. The buildings were destroyed by U.S. bombs in December -- attacks triggered by Iraq's refusal to cooperate with U.N. inspectors.
"The guy is a warrior," Bacon said, referring to Saddam. "He's always going to rebuild his war-making capability."
"We don't have evidence that he has started work again on his weapons of mass destruction programs," Bacon said. "But it's very hard to monitor without inspectors" there on the ground. The administration is expected to make a renewed push for a return of U.N. inspectors this fall in the Security Council.
Besides satellite surveillance, the United States also uses electronic eavesdropping and other means to monitor Iraqi military developments. Still, the absence of U.N. inspectors is a major limitation.
The inspectors made on-the-spot checks of military-related buildings and maintained camera surveillance of key facilities, although their access was not complete and sometimes cut off altogether.
The United States and Britain bombed Iraqi military and communications buildings for four days in December after the inspectors released a report saying Baghdad was blocking their work. Iraq has refused to permit the arms inspectors to return.