ESPOO, Finland — Nokia Oyj, the biggest cellular-phone maker, expects 1 billion people, or 16 percent of the world population, to have mobile phones in the first half of 2002 — six months ahead of its previous forecast.
The Finnish company also said its sales will rise by 25 percent to 35 percent a year through 2003. Nokia shares gained as much as 6.5 percent. The outlook for subscribers — rising from today's 700 million users — also boosted competitors' stocks. Espoo, Finland-based Nokia may benefit more from the surge in users than rivals as it's set to continue to take market share from Motorola Inc. and Ericsson AB next year, analysts said. Still, competition will increase from 2002 as more Asian companies enter the market and producers of handheld computers start making devices with wireless links to the Internet, investors said.
Nokia "succeeded in placing itself in the No. 1 position in a market it helped create and seems to be sustaining that lead," said Jeremy Podger, European fund manager at Investec Guinness Flight, which oversees $20 billion. "We're still concerned about potential introduction of new competition from suppliers in Asia."
Nokia shares gained as much as 3.22 euros to 52.60. The stock is up 45 percent since Oct. 18, the day before the company posted third-quarter earnings. Ericsson rose 3.8 percent to 124 kronor and Alcatel SA gained 6.8 percent to 64.5 euros. The Bloomberg Europe Telecommunication Equipment Index advanced as much as 5.3 percent.
Last year, Nokia controlled 27 percent of the global mobile-phone market, according to market researcher Dataquest Inc. Motorola had 17 percent, followed by Ericsson with 11 percent. Nokia now says it has almost a third of the market.
The Finnish company rattled investors in July when it warned third-quarter profit would fall as a delay in new phones curbed sales growth. Still, profit in that quarter beat estimates by 20 percent as Nokia extended its lead to Motorola and Ericsson.
Nokia on Tuesday forecasted sales growth for the first half of 2001 in "the upper range of 25 percent to 35 percent." Sales in this year's first half rose 62 percent, while Ericsson and Motorola sales rose 34 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
"Next year, Nokia will continue to win market share from competitors," said Mika Paloranta, an analyst at ArosMaizels. Espoo, Finland-based Nokia said it sees more web-connected mobile phones in 2002 than personal computers, earlier than its previous outlook of 2003. Ericsson expects 1 billion people to connect to the Internet via mobile phones in 2005.
Nokia estimates the industry will sell about 200 million Web-enabled phones next year, of which 180 million will support so-called Wireless Application Protocol. Before the end of this year, Nokia expects 40 million WAP phones to be sold.
While 72 percent of Nokia's sales come from making phones, the company will continue to boost its network unit. It expects its target network markets to grow 30 percent per year over the next three years, reaching a value of 90 billion euros in 2003.
"The opportunities in the future are enormous as we enter an unprecedented time when mobility, Internet, digitized media and other content can be combined and become available to almost anyone, anytime and anywhere," said Chief Executive Jorma Ollila in a statement issued through the Helsinki stock exchange.
Nokia aims for a 35 percent market share in so-called Wideband Code Division Multiple Access market. WCDMA will enable wireless transmission of moving images and faster Web access.
The company also said it aims for cost savings of 1 billion euros annually by 2003 through savings from e-business.