How the retail world will fare this holiday season is about as mixed a bag as Santa's with analysts either predicting gloom and weak sales or suggesting that Americans still delight in spending and giving to loved ones even during a cooling economy.
The American Express Retail Index in November surveyed 800 consumers nationwide and then forecast that Americans plan to spend 8 percent more on holiday gifts this year than last.
But actual sales dropped 6.9 percent during the first full week of shopping this year compared with last year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
The ICSC tracks data from 4,000 mall specialty stores but not department stores or "anchor tenants" in malls.
"We knew before the season started that it was going to be a tough comparison to 1999's banner year," according to John Konarski, senior vice president of research for the council. "This week's numbers bear that out. While negative results are certainly disappointing, this season has two extra days compared to last year, which should have an impact on the final total (because people will shop later).
"It's far too early to draw any conclusions for the season based on only this first full week of sales," Konarski said.
Some analysts have suggested that higher fuel prices, worries about Wall Street and heavy credit card debt have cooled consumer confidence.
"That could be," Konarski said.
What consumers must keep in mind is that previous shopping years have been so good and last year's "consumer confidence" surveys were all so remarkable, it's hard to sustain those numbers.
"Last year was an exceptional year, and every year can't be exceptional," Konarski said. "We're so used to increases. Not only was last year a banner year, but the previous three years were exceptional. There's a limit."
He suggests this holiday season could be a "decent" year when all is done.
If shoppers are "a little cautious" that could mean the difference between a positive or negative sales figure at the end of the season. Konarski said people may be dismayed about last month's fuel bill, "but they still have to buy — they're not going to say to the kids, 'No presents.' "
Ryan Dallon, store manager at Brookstone Co. in Crossroads Plaza Mall, said this is not a typical holiday season.
"We've had great weekends, but on weekdays you couldn't tell that it's December," Dallon said. "Our weekday numbers are far behind last year's."
Dallon speculates that people aren't spending money so freely because of Wall Street jitters and a general sense of uncertainty. "I don't think the elections helped. In a conservative state like Utah, people are waiting to see what happens," he said. "Interestingly enough, the people who are buying are extremely comfortable (financially). We're not seeing a whole lot of that mid-range (income) shopper."
Still, Dallon is optimistic that things will pick up by season's end, especially since downtown Salt Lake City is more "user friendly" than before with the convenience of TRAX and no more construction work clogging up Main.
Melissa Wayment, marketing director at ZCMI Center Mall, said she does not have solid figures yet, but the merchants she has talked to say they are either doing "quite well" or "at least as well as last year." She also has noted a surge of shoppers on weekends, possibly due to downtown activities or TRAX.
Tony Weller, of Sam Weller Books, is guardedly optimistic. "I have to say, with a bit of caution, that we've become accustomed to rather meager Christmases. My expectations are already ratcheted down," he said. "My hopes are that we will have a better Christmas than last year."
Business is brisk at Layton Hills Mall, according to general manager Linda Kelley. "A lot of it is due to the cold weather and people spending more on outerwear. We're very pleased with the performance of our tenants."
Kelley said the mall also has been helped the addition of a food court with 13 vendors; the expansion of Deseret Book; the relocation of The Copper Rivet and Franklin Covey; and the addition of 10 new stores, such as Stein Mart, American Eagle Outfitters, The Buckle and Pacific Sunwear. "It's really encouraging shopping at the center."
E-mail: lindat@desnews.com