Enrollment in Utah schools is down more than expected after a Carbon County mine layoff and a southern Utah polygamous group pulled its children from school.
But State Office of Education economist Patty Johansen said this is the calm before the storm: Another 100,000 students are expected to flood Utah schools in the next decade. And some school districts, particularly Tooele, Nebo and Alpine, are struggling to stay ahead of the tidal wave.
"We're preparing, yes. But are we preparing fast enough? I don't know. We're nervous," Nebo Superintendent Carl Nielson said Wednesday.
This year, 475,270 students attend Utah public schools. That's down 705 students from last year. The state had anticipated just a 142-student lull.
The difference? Some 220 workers were laid off and apparently moved following a July fire and explosion at Willow Creek mine in Carbon County that killed two miners, injured several others and shut down operations. Carbon District enrolled 370 fewer students this year as out-of-work miners left the community. The state projected it would lose just 72.
Washington School District lost 127 students instead of gaining 138. Polygamous families pulled children out of Phelps Elementary to be home-schooled at the behest of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The district soon will determine whether Phelps should remain open with just 90 students, one-third the usual enrollment, said Superintendent Kolene Granger.
State enrollment dips are expected to be short-lived, however.
An extra 100,000 schoolchildren are expected by 2010, bringing enrollment to about 571,400. At the same time, the overall state population is expected to grow by about 500,000 people, continuing the trend of having relatively few taxpayers to fund public schools.
On Tuesday the State Office of Education also revealed district enrollment projections through 2006. Some district projections differ from the state expectations.
The 9,200-student Tooele School District is expected to grow to 15,100 students in six years. But Tooele assistant superintendent and business administrator Richard Tolley projects 13,000 students. "If I'm at 15,000 (students) I can't build buildings fast enough," he said.
But Alpine expects enrollments to reach a whopping 57,600 students in just five years, said John Childs, assistant superintendent over junior high schools. That could require six elementaries, two junior highs and an alternative high school. The district has no money for buildings now. It could seek a voter-approved bond, but the school board has made no such decision.
The 21,000-student Nebo School District, which added about 550 students this year, will have to make room for 3,650 more over the next six years, according to state numbers.
Superintendent Nielson expects 30,900 students by 2010. The district is buying land and building five elementaries, remodeling Payson Middle School and adding on to Spanish Fork High. New buildings are expected to reach capacity soon after they open.
And in Utah's Dixie, Washington County schools could have to buy 2,100 new desks to accommodate all 20,500 students by 2006. Enrollment there has declined in recent years, leaving some room for more. The district also has land on which to build new schools, if necessary, Granger said.
Yet some growing districts say they'd like more building help from the state. A schools funding task force recommends that $10 million more be funneled into a building aid fund, which would allow more school districts to qualify for help. But Granger said the building aid formula should be reworked to better help growing school districts with high debt payments.
On the flip side of growth are San Juan and Carbon districts, which are expected to lose students through 2006. That could result in layoffs in both districts.
Carbon enrollment could decline from 4,285 to 3,825 through 2006, state numbers show. Westridge Middle School will shut down next year, Superintendent Boyd Bell said.
San Juan is expected to go from 3,145 to 2,480 students in six years, according to the state projections, but Superintendent Gary Cameron would "be surprised if our enrollment continues to drop much below the 2,900 mark." Past enrollment declines have come from closing businesses. But Cameron believes the White Mesa Mill could reopen and bring students back to the area.
Several other school districts, including Kane, Granite, Salt Lake City and Murray, are expected to shift slightly or remain stable overall, state numbers show.
E-mail: jtcook@desnews.com