WASHINGTON -- The once Solid South isn't solid anymore. The political transformation of territory that once was a lock for the Democrats -- and then became a stronghold for the Republicans over the past two decades -- could make the states of the Old Confederacy presidential battlegrounds this year.

"I do think the South is more in play than it has been," said Hastings Wyman Jr., editor of the Southern Political Report newsletter. "The issues that moved the South into the Republican column are all pretty much on the back burner or have disappeared." He cited the end of the Cold War, the fading of racial issues as a top priority and the Democrats' recent success with the economy.Democrats broke the steady GOP progress in 1998 by winning governors races in Alabama and South Carolina and retaining the governorship in Georgia. Exit polls suggest that a big turnout of black voters combined with strong support from independents and some crossover Republicans were key. And Arkansan Bill Clinton was able to carve away four of 11 Southern states -- Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana in both 1992 and 1996, plus Georgia the first year and Florida the second.

The region had grown increasingly Republican between the 1960s, when Democrats dominated almost every level of Southern politics, and 1998 when Republicans had the overwhelming majority of governorships and Senate seats.

Vice President Al Gore, on track to be the Democratic nominee, is showing increased strength in the Northeast, Midwest and California and would love to carve off a few Southern states in the 2000 general election. That would give him a better shot at winning the White House over Republican George W. Bush, the governor of Texas.

While the South remains strong for Republicans, many believe the political dynamic in the region is shifting -- people are more responsive to issues like Social Security, education and health care than to party labels.

"People in the South no longer think in purely partisan, ideological terms," said Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Republican. "They are thinking in pragmatic, practical terms."

Even though Democrats reclaimed the governorship in Alabama in 1998, state GOP executive director Twinkle Andress sees that as "a totally separate election" from the presidential race and says polls indicate Alabama is firmly conservative and Republican.

Five states from the Old Confederacy -- Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas -- hold party primaries Tuesday, along with Oklahoma. While the parties' nominees were settled a week ago, the primaries still shine the spotlight on a region that could play a crucial role in November.

"My guess is that the South will be the most Republican region in the country," said political scientist Charles Bullock of the University of Georgia. "But that doesn't mean the Democrats can't pick off some states. If you allow the opposition to sweep the South," that would be more than 140 electoral votes, more than half the number needed to win the presidency.

A Democrat in the South needs roughly 40 percent of the white vote and a heavy black turnout to succeed, according to a formula cited by some political analysts.

Parts of the South -- South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia and Texas -- are seen as very tough for the Democrats. Other states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida are viewed as more likely to be competitive. Until recently, the Democrats had little hope for Florida, where Bush's brother is governor, but the state is now considered possible.

Still, Bush retains a big advantage over Gore in the South, according to several recent national polls.

The battles will be fought in individual states, and David Worley, state Democratic chairman in Georgia, sees similarities with the 1998 governor's race there, won by Democrat Roy Barnes.

"We had a Republican candidate (for governor) with more money than God running against a candidate seen as the successor to eight very successful Democratic years," Worley said.

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Most significantly, the Georgia Democratic Party was very effective at mobilizing the black vote, which made up at least a fourth of total voter turnout, reaching most black households in the state several times in the closing days of the campaign.

"African-American voters are concerned about the same issues that all voters are concerned about -- education, health care," said Worley, who has given seminars to Democrats in neighboring states. "There was a tendency in the past to think of appealing to white voters in terms of message and to African-Americans in terms of turnout."

North Carolina GOP chairman William Cobey said he expects Bush to win there, but says he knows the Democrats will "come after this state vigorously." And Florida GOP chairman Al Cardenas said he expects Florida will be competitive because it "is a microcosm of the nation."

Despite Democratic enthusiasm, Huckabee thinks the South will provide the GOP a solid base, where Bush "will be stronger than garlic."

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