WASHINGTON -- The nation's top forecasters say most of Utah should enjoy near-normal temperatures and precipitation this spring and below-average chances for snow-melt flooding.
While that's good for the Beehive State, forecasters say a national disaster is looming elsewhere as nearly half the country remains in a prolonged drought -- which may worsen because of a continuing "La Ni"The news is not good," Commerce Secretary William Daley said at a press conference. "The drought of 1999 remains with us in the new century -- and our data indicate drought conditions are going to get worse before they get better."
That, of course, could mean everything from poor harvests to residential water shortages, problems with river navigation, wildfire and decreasing tourism in affected areas.
The National Weather Service said areas expected to be hardest hit are Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and Georgia in the South and the farm-belt states of Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.
Those affected areas closely parallel the drought of 1988, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says was the most costly weather disaster in history, resulting in an estimated $40 billion in losses.
It also noted that Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama all just had their driest Februaries in 106 years and have suffered four times more wildfires than normal so far this year.
"We saw last summer just what a drought can do to farmers," Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman said. "Looking to the future, we need to be ahead of the curve, prepared for dry weather when it comes and equipped with the mechanisms that will protect farmers and prevent widespread losses."
The federal government for years had staged a press conference it called the "spring flooding outlook" to talk about flood potential from major rivers. With that threat almost nil this year, it changed the name of the event to the "spring drought outlook."
U.S. Geological Survey Director Charles G. Groat said many areas, especially east of the Mississippi, have stream flows that are far below normal for this time of year. That is a sign of a drought that may continue throughout the summer.
"Think of it as not having enough money in the bank. We have not had enough water during our normally wet winter to put in our groundwater bank for our normally dry summer and fall. We anticipate additional drought problems in the months ahead based on the below-normal stream flows and groundwater levels we're seeing now," he said.
But the National Weather Service reported near normal conditions and outlooks for Utah this spring.
It said the entire state should have near-normal temperatures and below-average chances of snow-melt flooding.
It said precipitation in the western half of Utah should also be normal but predicted slightly drier-than-normal conditions this spring for the eastern half.
It also reported that only a tiny part of Utah -- roughly an area encompassing the Navajo reservation in San Juan County -- is currently "abnormally dry."