Forget all that stuff about the Jazz being a No. 2 seed and the Sonics being a lowly No. 7.
Seattle is not some first-round patsy, a cruise-control opponent the Jazz can roll over en route to a second-round rematch with the too-deep Blazers.Utah and Seattle played four times this season, splitting those games 2-2. In the first game, the Jazz led by 12 at the half yet lost by five. The second was a Jazz blowout. The third was a Sonics win, by eight, but it was close most of the way. And in the last one, the Jazz trailed by eight heading into the final period but pulled out a three-point victory.
Everyone around here was relieved to see the Jazz get the Sonics, instead of the explosive Kings, but Seattle did something Sacramento couldn't this season -- win in the Delta Center.
Despite that, here are five reasons why the Jazz will beat the Sonics:
1. Seattle can't guard Karl Malone.
Horace Grant is reputedly a good defender, but he doesn't faze the Mailman. When the Jazz have flopped in recent playoff games, its usually been in games where Malone stumbles. Shawn Kemp is gone, folks, all 300 pounds of him.
2. Inexperience.
Sonics Rashard Lewis, Brent Barry, Shammond Williams, Ruben Patterson, Jelani McCoy and Lazaro Borrell have a combined six games and 89 minutes of playoff experience. Coach Paul Westphal and Gary Payton can tell the youngsters what to expect in intricate detail, but that still won't prepare them for the relentless postseason intensity. They'll be wondering what hit them.
3. Homecourt advantage.
The Jazz worked their tails off all season to get the homecourt edge in probably one series -- this one -- and chances are it will be the difference. If the series goes five games, that fifth game will be decided in the Delta Center, in favor of the Jazz. If it goes less than five games, it will be because the Jazz take the first two here and the Sonics see the writing on the wall.
4. The Implosion Factor.
When things start to go sour, the volatile Payton is going to scream at Westphal and things will go downhill in a hurry. This is a team with a clinically depressed power forward, a floor leader who brawls with teammates when he isn't verbally ripping them to shreds, and one of the Barry boys, who possess an arrogance far beyond their skill level.
5. Hollywood.
It's just too good a storyline to not have the aging, last-gasp Jazz get past the no-name (OK, one-name) Sonics for a rematch with those nasty, cocky Blazers. Only a communist -- or whoever we're villifying these days -- wouldn't want such nice guys as Jeff Hornacek and John Stockton and friends to make one last run.
On the other hand, here's five reasons the Sonics will prevail:
1. Britleness.
The Jazz are one injury away from disaster, as was proven last season when Stockton got roughed up by Sacramento's Chris Webber and Utah failed to put up much of a fight against Portland. Hornacek's gimpy knee is already questionable from quarter to quarter.
2. Height.
The Jazz have an edge on the frontline, but where they've been hurt against good teams has been at the guardline. Howard Eisley and Jacque Vaughn have been lit up by big guards from Portland and Phoenix recently. The Sonics probably noticed. And when the Jazz double-team to help, the Sonics will get a lot of open looks from the three-point line.
3. Gary Payton. (See also Sonics No. 1)
Simply the best point guard in the league, he has the talent to take over a game. The Jazz have no one who can guard him, period. He can make threes, drive and dish. He loves to play against Stockton. It gets him motivated, and the last thing the Jazz want to see is a motivated Payton.
4. Speed.
The Sonics average two years younger than their Jazz elders, and they should use that to advantage by running the ball at Utah. The Jazz could end up with offseason nightmares of green blurs whizzing past just out of their vision -- and reach.
5. Vin Baker.
Seattle's power forward, a former All-NBA second-teamer and four-time All-Star, has been slammed mercilessly all season as an underachiever. So now he's matched up with the all-time icon of power forwards, and what better time to step up and prove to everyone that his demise was greatly exaggerated?