The price of a gallon of regular, unleaded, self-serve gasoline is expected to average $1.46 per gallon across the nation this summer, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday.
That's about 25 percent higher than last summer's average of $1.17 but well below the $2-plus that many analysts had been predicting only a month ago.
The EIA, an independent analytical unit within the Department of Energy, said prices nationally are expected to peak this month at $1.52 per gallon and then slowly declined over the next five months to $1.39 in September.
On Tuesday, AAA Utah reported in a special gasoline pricing update that gas prices in the Salt Lake metro area are currently averaging $1.57, up 8 cents from last month and the third consecutive month in which local prices have hit all-time highs.
AAA's regular monthly report, which will include Utah overall as well as Ogden and Provo specifically, is due to be published April 18. In last month's report, Ogden was averaging $1.50 a gallon, Provo $1.52, and the state overall was at $1.51.
The EIA's projection for declining prices during the high-demand summer driving season is attributed to the decision by the OPEC oil producing nations to raise their production quotas. Production had been cut back a year ago to force up prices, which had plummeted in early 1999 to historic lows, when adjusted for inflation.
The EIA projects gasoline demand this summer (which for its purposes runs from April to October) will average 8.72 million barrels per day, up 1.5 percent from last summer, a new record but well below the average growth seen in the past five years.
Gasoline inventories are currently low by historical standards, says EIA, with stocks on April 1 sharply lower than last year and near the low end of the normal stockpiles. Thus, if something goes wrong, such as problems at refineries (refinery fires in California last year caused shortages in that high-consumption state), then EIA's current optimistic forecast could become worthless.
"However, assuming no problems in ramping up U.S. gasoline production, expected increases in world oil production this summer should be sufficient to prevent increases in average retail gasoline prices from their currently high levels," said an EIA spokesman.
Crude oil prices were down 2 percent Friday, with crude scheduled for May delivery at $25.25 per barrel, down about $9 from last month. The EIA expects crude prices to decline to $23.50 by the end of the year.
Although they are at record highs in Salt Lake, gasoline prices already have dropped in some areas across the United States — but not in California, which has been running 26 cents per gallon higher than the national average. The EIA says the disparity is expected to continue into the summer.