While many Americans find Vice President Al Gore's issue positions more appealing, he is not as well-liked personally or viewed as commanding a leader as Gov. George W. Bush, the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll shows.
Gore's lackluster favorability ratings may help explain why Bush has emerged at this early stage as the preferred candidate across the demographic spectrum, including three critical groups that voted Democratic in 1996: Catholics, independents and Northeasterners. Voters, in fact, are so lukewarm toward Gore that he is widely perceived as a loser: By a margin of nearly 2-1, they expect Bush to capture the White House in November.Despite Bush's advantages before Election Day, Gore may be heartened that vice presidents are often overshadowed by the president until they can distinguish themselves on a national stage at their nominating convention.
And the survey illuminated potential rough patches for the Texas governor. For one thing, voters have qualms with his plan, which he outlined on Monday, that would allow workers to invest part of their payroll taxes in private accounts. Most Americans said the market was a perilous place to invest.
Voters also seemed skeptical of Bush's proposed tax cut of $483 billion over five years, which Gore has condemned as a "risky tax scheme." Even 57 percent of people who said they planned to vote for Bush were uncertain of the effect of that proposal.
Bush will also have to cautiously navigate roiling factions in his own ranks. Three out of 10 Republican voters said if the governor picks a running mate who supports legalized abortion, they would be less likely to support him. About a third of all voters said religious conservatives carry too much influence in the Republican Party.
The nationwide telephone survey was conducted last Wednesday through Saturday with 947 adults, including 716 registered voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three to four percentage points.
Perhaps the most promising news for Gore is that he scored well with voters on issues they say that are at the top of their agenda, like health care, education and Social Security. He is also seen as more caring than Bush, despite the governor's slogan that he is a "compassionate conservative."
Given that his issues are popular and that the economy seems strong, the nagging difficulty that has confounded the vice president's advisers and many Democrats is why his overall ratings are not more competitive with Bush.
Among all voters, Bush is leading Gore by eight percentage points, 47 to 39. Bush holds a wide edge among men, 50 to 36 percentage points; among women, Gore drew 42 percent, Bush, 44 percent.
The vice president's lagging ratings appear to have more to do with personality than policy. Gore is seen favorably by 34 percent of registered voters and unfavorable by 36 percent. By contrast, Bush is seen as favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by only 28 percent.
A related problem that has dogged Gore is that Bush is viewed as more of a leader. Fifty-three percent of registered voters in the new poll said Gore has strong leadership qualities; 63 percent said the same thing about Bush.
The contrast is striking, particularly since Gore had been an elected official since 1976, when he was elected to the House from Tennessee; Bush was not elected governor, his first office, until 1994. That said, though, Gore has spent the past seven years in the shadow of a president who consistently draws high ratings for the job he has done in office.
Several people who responded to the poll explained in follow-up interviews that there were not specific issues upon which they split sharply with Gore. Rather, they often cited more intangible factors: his personal characteristics.
"Gore has not really shown a lot of leadership qualities or abilities to be in a position to run our nation," said Ken Bogler, 27, a labor representative from Somerset, N.J., who is an independent. "It's a presence, really. The way he carries himself, the way he speaks, does not seem presidential." He added, "Issues don't play a big part in my support. Nine times out of 10, the candidates change their positions once they get into office any way. He may have the experience, but if you don't have the confidence and the abilities of someone who can handle the job, you don't give him the job."
Vera Jeane, 71, a retired nurse from Bay City, Texas, who is a Democrat, put it this way: 'Al Gore acts as if he's not sure what he's thinking, as if he doesn't have a mind of his own. He doesn't seem to be strong enough in his opinions and as a leader to be president. Bush seems to be a stronger man with more definitive opinions. And I think he would make a better leader."
Tony Coelho, Gore's campaign chairman, said he was not discouraged by such critiques -- and insisted that voters would defect from Bush when his policy stands are articulated in detail.
"You take the issues that are out there today," he said. "As we get to the general election, we're going to be forcing a debate." Citing how Gore has inched up in the polls since last year, Coelho added, "We've made up a lot of points with George Bush. I feel very good about where we are compared to six months ago."
With fewer than three in 10 voters saying they were pay a lot of attention to the campaign, the candidates have not yet been able to fully define themselves to the electorate.