Can the Jazz win it all this year?
Sure. But they're going to need some help.
This year the NBA crown is truly up for grabs. No team looks overpowering. At various times, various teams have looked very strong. Right now it's the Spurs. Next week it may be the Kings, or Blazers, or Lakers.
Or the Jazz.
That's why it's not waffling to say the Jazz could win it, if everything falls into place. And by everything, I mean:
— Homecourt advantage. This could be crucial, especially in the deep Western Conference, where one extra home game could mean all the difference in the world.
It's also highly unlikely the Jazz will have it. The Spurs are playing the league's best ball and have a relatively easy remaining schedule. Only four of their 13 games are against playoff-bound teams from the West, and three of those are in San Antonio.
Utah has 14 games left, and seven of those are against playoff-bound West teams. They also have a tough road game in Milwaukee, which already beat the Jazz in Salt Lake.
In other words, it doesn't look good for Utah. But the X factor for the Jazz could be the Spurs' history of fragility. Last year they were coming off a championship and had the fourth-best record in the West, but an injury to Tim Duncan made them first-round losers. One big injury in these final weeks could allow the Jazz to sneak in.
— Seeding. If the Jazz don't get homecourt advantage, there's still a slim chance. But it will depend on who they get matched up with and, more importantly, who they don't.
Face it, the Jazz don't match up well against the Spurs or Blazers. San Antonio is 3-0 against Utah this season, holding them to 38 percent shooting. Portland is 3-1, and while all those games have been close, it's still tough picturing Utah downing the Blazers four times. Especially if Scottie Pippen is playing point guard.
If the playoffs started today, the Jazz would be the third seed, paired off against Dallas. The explosive Mavericks wouldn't be a pushover, but they aren't playoff-experienced and the Jazz could beat them.
What the Jazz need is a finish that pits them against the Suns, Timberwolves or Mavericks in the first round, and the Lakers in the second round. Utah can beat the Lakers. It's no sure thing, but they match up better with them than they do Portland or San Antonio.
— Donyell Marshall. We know what to expect from Karl Malone, John Stockton, Bryon Russell. We even have a good idea what we'll see from John Starks and Danny Manning, who have been in numerous playoff games.
But what will Marshall, who has been an integral part of the Jazz's success this year, do in his first playoff action?
If he chokes, stumbles or otherwise vanishes, the Jazz will be no better than they were last year. He could be the difference, one way or the other.
— Health. The Jazz are always one injury away from disaster. If Malone or Stockton go down at a crucial time, it's all over. Something as simple as a hyperextended right elbow for Stockton could doom the Jazz, as it did in the '96 conference finals against Seattle.
— Momentum. Don't underestimate this. Every year we hear that even though a team stumbled into the postseason, it can right itself with one game.
Hogwash. Last year the Jazz went 6-5 in April, struggled to put away a Sonics team in disarray in the first round, then barely put up a fight in the second round against Portland.
In the Jazz's first finals year, they won 19 of their last 20 regular-season games. The next year they won 14 of their last 16. Momentum matters.
So there it is, Utah's recipe for postseason success. They can win a title this year, but it won't be easy and they'll need some luck. Probably too much luck.
E-mail: rich@desnews.com