There's an old bromide that says land is the best investment around because they aren't making any more of it.
I've always thought the guy who first offered up that advice must have lived on Manhattan Island or maybe in Beverly Hills.
It's for sure he never drove from Salt Lake City to St. George on I-15, or to Wendover on I-80. Those of us who have made those runs invariably wonder how anyone could ever think the world is becoming overcrowded.
Sure, we all wish we'd bought land in Park City back in the '50s and '60s, but we didn't and it's too late now to attend one of those sheriff's sales where Main Street properties in the "ghost town" were supposedly snapped up for a hundred bucks in back taxes.
I don't know about you, but I'd rather bet my retirement fund on a dot-com Web site for sixth-grade Nintendo addicts than on a few acres west of Ibapah.
Which means you can't invest in just any land anywhere. With a few exceptions, buying property in Utah means the Wasatch Front or fuggedaboudit, as they say in New York.
And, yes, there are still some foresighted individuals who are willing to put their money on raw land locally on the hope for a killing later — maybe the same people who were smart enough to guess that Park City would one day be the most expensive real estate in Utah.
According to the annual commercial real estate survey and forecast of Salt Lake-based Colliers Commerce CRG, released last week, more land changed hands here in 2000 than in any previous year in Utah history, a milestone that Colliers managing partners William K. Martin and William D'Evelyn say is proof that "developers are voicing their confidence in the market by making an investment in the future."
But don't expect any Oklahoma-style land rush. While retail land values and prices remain stable locally, CRG says the overall strength of the economy and a healthy balance between supply and demand for retail land has created a "plateau" for prices.
"Landowners in certain segments of Salt Lake County are having to readjust their expectations regarding land values," says CRG. "Some landowners who had expected a continuation of the upswing in values that occurred in the mid-to-late 1990s are adopting a more realistic view on pricing now that values have stabilized."
"Stabilize" is a polite term for "no longer rising" — good news for potential buyers, bad news for potential sellers.
In its 2001 forecast, CRG says large developers are facing a shortage of available improved industrial acreage and the inventory of land suitable for large-scale industrial development is going nowhere but down this year.
CRG believes developers who do buy land in Salt Lake County this year will likely favor property near Intel's new Riverton campus. The growth potential that stems from Intel's long-term plans in Utah should appeal to developers of build-to-suit, build-to-own and speculative office buildings.
And the fact that affordable housing projects are going up or being planned for local areas once though to be well outside the traditional "suburbs" of Salt Lake City could hurt the value of land in surrounding counties.
"Areas such as Tooele and western Utah County experienced a boost in residential development during a period when the density requirements of most Salt Lake Valley municipalities discouraged development of affordable housing," notes CRG.
"With potential options now available in Salt Lake County (for residential development) outlying areas may suffer a decline in activity."
CRG says land prices for certain segments of the local market may decline this year.
"Land appropriate for uses such as assisted living and senior apartments, along with less well-located office sites, may experience a fall in prices in 2001, a trend which has already occurred in hotel properties."
E-MAIL: max@desnews.com