There seem to be only two things Olympic money crunchers can agree on.
One, that they don't and probably never will agree on exactly how much taxpayer money has been and will be spent on the 2002 Winter Games.
And two, that whatever the taxpayer burden, it will be — appropriately — Olympic in size.
SLOC President Mitt Romney's best guess on taxpayers' support of the Games?
$500 million.
Which isn't too far off the conclusion of a Deseret News analysis of various economic reports on the 2002 Winter Olympics.
That works out to this: for every dollar of private money being spent by the Salt Lake Organizing Committee preparing and hosting the Winter Games, taxpayers at some level will combine to spend about 33 cents in direct Olympic costs. Probably double that amount if you add in indirect costs.
Or another way to look at it, federal, state and local governments will spend about $432 million in direct Olympic expenditures, compared with SLOC's budget of $1.32 billion.
"I do not say we aren't spending taxpayer money," said Romney. "What I say is we are not spending taxpayer money on our venues and operations. But there will be a major investment by taxpayers, mostly federal taxpayers, to support the Games."
A recent report by the governor's Office of Planning and Budget estimates the state will spend $16.8 million in "direct expenditures" of state revenue for the 2002 Games — on everything from more money to hire meat inspectors to having an adequate cache of flu vaccine to deal with a Games outbreak to funding a hospitality center to wine and dine business executives who might consider moving here.
Now add to the mix $112.2 million in indirect state costs not reimbursed by SLOC or the federal government — mostly things resulting from increased services provided to a greater population of Olympic workers and construction projects.
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The total cost to state taxpayers: $129 million.
The report estimates the direct cost to cities and counties at about $10.7 million after federal funds are deducted. The local money will be spent on a variety of services including fireworks, street maintenance, traffic and crowd control, fire protection and garbage pickup.
When the indirect costs of $84.9 million are added, the total Olympic bill for local governments is tagged at $95.6 million.
Then there's the federal government, clearly the biggest contributor of tax dollars to Salt Lake's Games.
A December 1999 report by the General Accounting Office, the investigative arm of Congress, suggests federal taxpayers will foot the bill for about $404 million in direct costs for Salt Lake's Games. No estimate was offered as to indirect federal costs.
While Games organizers and economists take issue with many of the numbers, they agree generally that $400 million to $500 million will be spent by government — i.e., taxpayers — at some level, most of it going toward public safety and transportation needs.
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For his part, Romney doesn't have much faith in any of the economic analyses and dollar figures, calling them little more than "educated guesses."
No one involved with the Games believes the Government Accounting Office estimates of federal costs. "I just don't know where they got those numbers (in the GAO report)," said Natalie Gochnour, deputy director for the governor's Office of Planning and Budget. "I just don't see the amounts (of federal costs) they reported."
'Huge rewards'
Olympic officer Lane Beattie, who earns an annual salary of just over $100,000 paid out of state funds, is quick to point out that taxpayers are unquestionably investing a lot in the Winter Games. But he adds that Utah is clearly the gold medal winner in the finance game.
Not only are most of the Olympic preparation costs being paid with federal funds that in turn boost Utah's economy, state and local expenses will be offset with increased revenue from Games-related sales and income taxes. From 1996 to the present, the state has reaped an additional $20 million in tax revenue from Olympic-related activities, and local governments have seen a $10 million increase for the same thing.
So yes, the Games are gobbling up tax money but also generating a lot of it.
Beattie estimates the state will come out ahead by $66.4 million through 2003, while the OPB report puts the number at $55.5 million. The OPB report also predicts local governments will see a profit of $20.4 million.
That increased revenue has been enough to cover the costs incurred by state and local governments in preparing for the Games, he said. And he optimistically believes that when the final ceremonies are concluded, state and local government tax revenues will far exceed what those governments spent.
"The reality is you have huge economic impacts (with the Olympics), 17 days of intense impacts," Beattie said. "But you also have huge rewards."
Not so fast, said Ken Bullock with the Utah League of Cities and Towns.
"It is convenient to say that now, but there are costs you cannot predict at this point," he said. "What if we have riots by people seeking to promote their causes? How will the accelerated federal funding affect our requests for transportation funds 10 years down the road? There are so many costs that are not being considered."
Positive impact
Romney agrees state and local taxpayers will fair extremely well through increased Olympic-related revenue, "but the same is not true of federal taxpayers." Still, the investment is still far less than what governments in other countries traditionally spend to plan, prepare and host the Olympics.
For example, $4.5 billion of Sydney's $5.6 billion budget for the 2000 Summer Games was paid for by Australian taxpayers, Romney said. "Only in the United States is the private sector large enough to finance the Olympics."
Look at the whole picture, Romney said, and you have a positive tax balance for local and state government, hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Olympic venues left behind that will generate future economic benefits and a $40 million legacy fund to help pay for maintaining those venues.
"I'm not motivated by how to make money for Utah but to host great Games that will do us proud," he said. "But they will have a positive economic impact."
How much?
Using various economic prediction models, economists have estimated Utah's net economic impact from hosting the Games at $2.5 billion over the next four years, Beattie said.
Economists anticipate that many state agencies will experience increased demand for services during the Games, although it is difficult to put an exact price tag on it. Just the cost of business regulation, professional licensing and investigating ticket fraud during the Games has been put at $299,900.
Hidden costs
There are hidden costs to taxpayers, too.
For example, not all of the 70,000 Games visitors are expected to be law-abiding, although the increased criminal activity is expected to be minor infractions. In fact, the Administrative Office of the Courts is anticipating enough of an increase in misdemeanor cases that it has requested $227,000 to cover the caseload.
That money, which will come from a $7.5 million appropriation from the Utah Legislature, will go to hire additional interpreters and pay for overtime for court personnel and security. The courts plan on using retired "senior" judges to fill in for regular judges who will be handling Olympic-related cases in the evenings and on weekends.
The University of Utah, Weber State University and University Hospital will combine to spend more than $3.6 million in state funds, all of which will be absorbed within existing budgets.
There will be increased costs associated with inspections of workplace safety, anti-discrimination complaints and fair housing. And all of those temporary Olympic businesses will have to collect and submit Utah taxes, creating an increased workload at the State Tax Commission.
Adding to the taxpayer mix are the costs of a joint state and federal visitors center to provide visitor information about Utah's public lands, a $1.6 million campground and trails face-lift paid for by the U.S. Forest Service and city costs for setting up and policing a public protest area.
And the Legislature just appropriated $2 million to help pay for local Olympic celebrations, although local governments will have to match the state funds.
"Utah communities recognize the Games are good for Utah as a whole, and they do want successful Games and they are willing to contribute to make them successful," said Bullock, who also sits on the SLOC board of trustees. "But to make them successful, you also have to balance taxpayer interests and require that certain services be paid for (by those incurring the expense). It is a sound business principle."
E-mail: spang@desnews.com