WASHINGTON — Guess who's cheering for Utah to win its census case before the U.S. Supreme Court and for it to pick up an extra House seat instead of North Carolina? It's the National Republican Congressional Committee, the arm of the GOP that helps elect Republicans to the U.S. House.
The reason? "We'd rather have the Republican-controlled Utah (Legislature) drawing that district than Democratic-controlled North Carolina," said Carl Forti, deputy communications director for the NRCC.
"But the North Carolina seat still is not that bad for us. It's competitive," he said. He added he is not familiar enough with merits of the case to comment on it and was commenting only on its political ramifications.
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed Tuesday to hear Utah's challenge to the 2000 Census. It contests the practice of enumerators estimating how many people live in some homes where contact could not be made after several tries. It says that resulted in North Carolina winning an extra House seat instead of Utah.
Utah contends the Constitution and federal law require an actual headcount and no sampling or estimates. The Bush administration and North Carolina oppose that.
The case could have a huge impact on the U.S. House, where Republicans hold only a narrow margin.
A swing of just six seats in November could give Democrats control. The House now has 222 Republicans, 211 Democrats and two independents, one who votes with Democrats and one with Republicans.
The NRCC has been issuing to the press a series of reviews of redistricting so far in states and happened to issue its review of Utah on Tuesday.
Even if Utah doesn't pick an extra House seat, the NRCC figures the GOP should still pick up the seat now held by Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, because of lines drawn by the Legislature to make it more Republican.
"Based just on redistricting, that should be a Republican seat. The new lines help considerably. What remains to be seen is who the Republican candidate is and what kind of race they run. Those are variables we can't measure yet," Forti said.
The NRCC analysis notes that new lines increase the expected Republican makeup of that district to 64 percent. While Matheson's current district is entirely within Salt Lake County, his new district retains only the eastern parts of it and adds 13 rural counties that have been GOP strongholds.
Meanwhile, Matheson said such data don't take into account the heavy independent streak of many Republicans and he figures to do well in his re-election race.
"Utahns tend to give everyone a serious look regardless of their parity identification. I wouldn't be here if they didn't," he said. "I think folks here in D.C. view Utah in simplistic partisan terms and do so at their own peril." Still, the expected Republican pickup of the 2nd District is one of only three projected by the NRCC among states reviewed so far, showing they consider it to be among the keys to retaining control of the House.
Forti said Republicans also figure to hold the 1st District of retiring Rep. Jim Hansen, R-Utah. It lost many Republican areas to Matheson's redrawn 2nd District, but Forti said it should still remain as a safe GOP seat with nearly 68 percent of voters being Republican.
"We already have several great candidates running there. It's even more Republican than the 2nd District. If we have to run in an open seat, that is the kind we want," Forti said.
The NRCC figures that the district of Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, is 72 percent Republican and is a safe GOP seat.
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