It may be only the second week of October, but it's never too early to take a quick look at the bowl forecast.
For the Mountain West Conference, this much is certain: the conference has four bowls locked up for a total payout of $3.85 million, or less than a third of a single Bowl Championship Series bowl payout. Almost as certain is the Mountain West's exclusion from the BCS — barring some miraculous move by Air Force.
What's uncertain is if the MWC will be able to field four bowl-eligible teams. A bigger slap in the face than having to settle for non-BCS bowls is an inability to fill all the contracted berths.
So far, the MWC's four likeliest bowl candidates seem to be Air Force, Colorado State, BYU and Utah.
POSTSEASON PROSPECTS: Following is a team-by-team glance at the Mountain West's bowl-eligibility prospects:
Air Force — 5-0 overall, 2-0 MWC; 12 games in 2002. Only one win from bowl-eligible status, the Falcons have remote BCS hopes. To the Academy's advantage: undefeated to date and the chance to beat BYU, Notre Dame and Colorado State in October home dates.
BYU — 3-2; 12 games. The Cougars have to face their three toughest conference foes — Air Force, Colorado State and Utah — all on the road this season. Only a major collapse keeps BYU from an eligibility-minimum three more wins.
Colorado State — 4-2; 13 games. After a horrendously tough preseason, the Rams finish with six conference games, needing to win at least half to qualify for the postseason. The ultimate test will be in a 13-day stretch later this month: Oct. 19 at Utah, Oct. 24 vs. BYU and Oct. 31 at Air Force.
New Mexico — 2-4, 0-1 MWC; 13 games (includes win over Div. I-AA Weber State). Since the Lobos play 13 games and one win came against I-AA competition, New Mexico is still a whopping five wins away from being bowl eligible.
San Diego State — 0-5; 13 games. What's more likely, the Aztecs winning seven of their remaining eight games to become bowl eligible or putting their postseason hopes out of misery with two losses? SDSU should look at its Dec. 7 finale at Hawaii as its "postseason."
UNLV — 2-3; 12 games. With all seven conference games left, the Rebels are looking at a four-by-four possibility — four wins gets them bowl eligible, while four losses eliminates them from the postseason. Of its four stiffest tests, UNLV is on the road for three — at BYU, Utah and CSU — while hosting Air Force.
Utah — 2-3, 0-1 MWC; 11 games. Here's where playing only 11 games may be challenging for the Utes, who already have faltered against Air Force and need a 6-5 record to be bowl-eligible (versus the 6-6 for a team playing 12 Div. I-A games). A U. advantage: the Utes host their three biggest challengers remaining — CSU, UNLV and BYU.
Wyoming — 1-4 overall; 12 games (includes win against Div. I-AA The Citadel). It could come down to next week's game against San Diego State to see which Mountain West cellar dweller is the league's first to have its miniscule bowl hopes dashed.
THE FOUR BOWLS: And a glance at the four bowls with Mountain West tie-ins:
AXA Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31 at Memphis, Tenn.; $1.3 million payout; MWC No. 1 vs. Conference USA No. 1. Mountain West teams want to go to Memphis because playing in the Liberty Bowl means you won the conference. But don't be surprised if the MWC title is shared this season. If the split includes BYU, neither the Cougars nor the bowl organizers would mind if BYU didn't make its third trip to Memphis in four postseasons. Look for the MWC representative to be either Colorado State or Air Force, either by winning the MWC crown outright or being selected by the Liberty Bowl officials from a shared championship. Opponents could be Southern Mississippi, Louisville or maybe Texas Christian.
Sega Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 25 at Las Vegas; $800,000 payout; MWC No. 2 vs. Pac-10 No. 5. If BYU finishes anywhere from tied for first to being merely bowl eligible, expect the Cougars to make their first-ever visit to the Las Vegas Bowl. The Vegas folk have the second selection and would love to have BYU . . . and Cougar fans would love the proximity (read: cheap Christmas vacation). The Pac-10 representative could be Washington, Southern Cal (although likely not a repeat visitor after last season's appearance), Oregon State or perhaps one of the Arizona teams.
San Francisco Bowl, Dec. 31 at San Francisco; $750,000 payout; MWC No. 3 vs. Big East Nos. 3, 4 or 5. Of the aforementioned CSU-Air Force duo, whichever team doesn't make the Liberty Bowl will likely end up in San Francisco, playing the likes of Pitt, Boston College, West Virginia or maybe a resurgent Syracuse.
Seattle Bowl, Dec. 31 at Seattle, $1 million payout; MWC No. 4 vs. ACC No. 6. Will Utah end up here? Or perhaps UNLV? Or if both teams stumble, will the Mountain West even have a fourth bowl-eligible qualifier? Atlantic Coast candidates include Clemson, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest or North Carolina — or maybe a non-ACC team if the conference can't fill its spot.
THIS WEEK'S GAMES: Finally, four games of head-to-head Mountain West action. Rankings are from the AP Top 25, with all times listed as Mountain.
Wyoming at Colorado State, 1 p.m. Saturday: In a romp over their rivals, the Rams will rebound from their disappointing loss at Fresno State by snapping the Cowboys' win streak at one.
Utah at San Diego State, 5 p.m. Saturday, KJZZ: A change at quarterback and a week off won't help the Utes as much as traveling to face the winless Aztecs. Utah halts its three-loss skid while extending SDSU's woes.
New Mexico at UNLV, 5 p.m. Saturday: The winner of this middle-of-the-pack pairing could end up being a contender for bowl eligibility. We'll favor the Rebels because they're at home and coming off a win.
BYU at No. 21 Air Force, 8 p.m. Saturday (ESPN2): Bad omen for the Falcons: Air Force is 0-2 when ranked and facing a conference foe. Bad omen for the Cougars: BYU has this habit of only showing up strong for a half (most recently versus Utah State). Air Force has been more consistent this season, and BYU will need a complete game to upset the favored Falcons.
E-mail: taylor@desnews.com