The tragedy of Sept. 11 didn't cause Americans to stop eating out — they'd begun cutting back on it a year before. That was a sure sign the economy was already on the downturn.
But dining out is now on the rise, which tells us the economy is getting back on track. So says Harry Balzer, vice-president of the NPD Group, a company that tracks America's eating habits through 30-plus studies, including daily food diaries, retail and restaurant sales, kitchen audits, appliance and cookware sales, and nutritional and food safety surveys.
The research is used by food and beverage marketers to develop their marketing plans, and the surveys are sold to hundreds of businesses in the food, beverage and restaurant industries. They then base their marketing and manufacturing decisions on those surveys. Even Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, has asked for data from NPD studies.
Balzer spoke to a food journalists' seminar in Orlando two weeks ago in conjunction with the Pillsbury Bake-Off. He pointed out statistics on how people are eating and drinking — some of them going against general assumptions.
The number of meals Americans prepared at home rose in 2000, the first time since the last recession in 1991/1992. The number of annual meals eaten in a restaurant per person dropped from 66 in 1999 to 64 in 2000. In addition, Americans ordered fewer take-out meals, down from 73 meals per person annually in 1999 to 70 in 2000. But restaurant meals (including upscale, quick-serve and casual) were already going back up slightly by the time of the terrorist attacks.
The week of Sept. 11, shocked and saddened Americans turned off their stoves and turned on the television. Quick-service restaurant meals rose by 2 percent. It was one of the year's best weeks for pizza restaurant sales, and other fast-food/take-out specialties, such as fried chicken and Chinese, also did well, Balzer said.
Meanwhile, full-service restaurant sales dropped.
"In a sense, the fast food/take-out restaurants served an important purpose after Sept. 11, by allowing customers to concentrate on the quickly unfolding events," Balzer said. "They provided us with something we all needed — pizza."
Restaurant figures are good indicators of the state of the economy, "because they represent your discretionary dollars and how you make a decision to eat, on a nightly basis," said Balzer.
Now that the restaurant industry is doing nicely, "that tells us the recession is over," he said. "People are still going out to eat because they don't like to cook, but they are going to cheaper restaurants."
That's why specialty fast-food restaurants, such as Taco Bell and KFC, are doing very well since Sept. 11. In fact, he said, restaurants are selling more take-out meals than sit-down meals. "Even if I'm not traveling or I don't have a job, I still don't want to cook," Balzer said. "People think they are saving money by going to KFC instead of upscale restaurants."
Around 83 percent of all suppers are still eaten in the home, and 76 percent of the time, the female head of the household is still responsible for preparing it. But that doesn't mean that Mom is cooking more from-scratch meals, Balzer said. "In 1990 we discovered that convenience is what Americans wanted more than anything else in food, more than low-fat or more healthy, which were bigger factors in the past. At the same time, people are watching the cost of food. Less of our disposable income is going to food than ever before."
Besides bringing home meals from quick-serve restaurants, Americans are using these strategies to streamline meal preparation without busting the budget:
— Frozen meals. In 2000, 11.5 percent of suppers prepared at home featured a frozen-meal dish, up from 9.4 percent just four years ago. Besides frozen pizzas, many food manufacturers have frozen-meal kits that are less expensive than restaurant meals ("Skillet Sensations," "Create A Meal," etc.). "Frozen main dishes are the fastest- growing segments of the marketplace," Balzer said.
— Grilling. "Barbecuing is the one time Dad will cook, if it's outdoors on a grill," said Balzer, adding that 29 percent of households report grilling their supper. Even indoor grilling is big; the George Foreman grill is today's top-selling small appliance.
— Reduce the number of side dishes at mealtime. In 2000, the average supper featured 3.6 dishes, the lowest total in the 16 years of the report, and an 8 percent drop from 10 years ago. Side dishes most often omitted were vegetables, potatoes, salads and bread.
— Limiting entertaining. Americans, the document says, are inviting fewer people over to share a meal. In 2000, the average American household had 52 guests over for meals (including breakfast, lunch, supper and snacks), compared with 94 guest meals in 1985 and 72 in 1995. "Why? Because someone has to clean the toilet," said Balzer. Casual dining restaurants have become the social setting, instead of having people over to dinner.
— Microwaving. One option American's aren't using more: the microwave oven. In 2001, only 26 percent of suppers used the microwave — unchanged for the past 25 years.
OTHER FINDINGS in the NPD Group studies:
— What's brewing in the coffee industry. Coffee consumption is actually declining, despite the proliferation of Starbucks and its clones throughout American cities. Starbucks is just a drip in the percolator compared to the amount of coffee served in restaurants, vending machines, at home and elsewhere, said Balzer. "The percentage of meals including coffee is declining in every age group. But Starbucks has moved coffee drinkers from buying it in the supermarket to buying it from them."
— The top three items most frequently consumed at a restaurant (including a fast-food restaurant): A hamburger, french fries and a soft drink.
— The one fast-food burger restaurant doing well right now is Wendy's. "Because it appeals to adults more than Burger King or McDonald's," said Balzer.
— The burger/fries/drink combo is actually growing as a morning meal. Twelve percent of all breakfasts in restaurants include a carbonated drink.
— There is an increase in soft-drink consumption. But adults have shown a bigger increase than teens.
— Bottled water — that's one market that mystifies Balzer. "Who can figure this out? We pay more for it than the Coke."
— In food safety, the top concerns of consumers are:
1. E. coli
2. Salmonella
3. Mad cow
4. Hoof-and-mouth disease
5. Genetically modified foods
6. Listeria
7. Bio-tampering of restaurants
8. Genetically modified corn
— The five items most likely to be served at dinner:
1. Vegetables
2. Potatoes
3. Salads
4. Carbonated soft drinks
5. Milk
— Lunch: The number 1 lunch is the sandwich, and 44 percent of all lunches are eaten at home. Only 9 percent of lunches are carried from home.
— Breakfast: The top three breakfast items are cereal, coffee and fruit juice. The 1950's-style breakfast items (eggs, bacon, sausage and toast) are on the rise in the form of the fast-food breakfast sandwich.
— Health concerns are at a a turning point. From 1985-1994, people were more interested in getting rid of things like fat, salt, cholesterol, sugar and caffeine. In 1996, the shift went to adding things — vitamins, calcium and so on. Now the tide may be turning again, Balzer said, because obesity is at all-time high. "I think Americans have come to realize that the most pressing health issue is the most obvious . . . our weight," says Balzer. "Any product with "diet" on it is doing well. And March is the month when people get most serious about changing their eating patterns.
— Food products that are selling well:
1. Lunchable-type kits
2. Frozen entree kits
3. Bagged salads
4. Green and purple ketchup
— Factors that drive change to new products:
1. Money — is it cheaper?
2. Time — will it take more or less of it?
3. New but not risky; consumer behavior doesn't change quickly, which is why most new products fail.
— Today's top-selling small kitchen appliance: The George Foreman grill. The top-seller five years ago: the bread machine.
E-MAIL: vphillips@desnews.com