WASHINGTON — It was only in January that Karl Rove, President Bush's chief political strategist, was telling Republican operatives to trumpet the administration's handling of the war on terrorism as a major selling point in the November midterm elections. But now, in a striking readjustment driven by several recent polls, Republican strategists are warning that the war will not guarantee their party victory this fall, and Bush aides say the president has responded with a significant refocusing on the "mommy issues" of his domestic agenda.
On Wednesday Bush talked up his education bill in Wisconsin. On Monday he did the same thing in Michigan. On Friday in Ohio and again next Monday in Illinois he is to talk of his welfare plan. Last week, Bush revisited the "compassionate conservative" theme of his presidential campaign in a speech in California.
Bush is squeezing in the trips — three of them in one week and two of them without his usual political fund-raisers — among efforts in Washington at brokering peace in the Middle East. But even when he talks of international issues, the president's language often reflects compassion toward families.
On Tuesday at the White House, as he spoke of the need to forge peace in the Middle East, Bush interjected, "I deeply hurt when there is a lack of hope for moms and dads of anybody — Palestinian moms and dads." He added, "It bothers me to think there are some whose children are so hopeless they're willing to commit suicide."
A recent public opinion survey by the leading Republican polling company has in part alerted the White House.
"Right now, voters perceive the parties as headed toward a matchup of Republicans on taxes and terrorism versus Democrats on economy, education and the elderly," a confidential briefing by Public Opinion Strategies for Capitol Hill Republicans concluded in April. "We need more than just taxes/terrorism to win."
The poll accompanying the briefing found that 79 percent of voters rated domestic issues like taxes, health care and education as more important than international issues in deciding how they would vote for Congress this year. Conversely, the poll said that only 16 percent rated international issues, including the Bush administration's efforts to solve the Middle East crisis, as more important than domestic issues in deciding how to vote.
"That is a pretty stark and compelling number," said Geoffrey Garin, a leading Democratic pollster, who said his surveys have similar results. "The Bush administration and congressional Republicans hoped that the politics of 2002 would be defined by the popularity of a wartime president. The reality is that voters have a very different idea."