Webb: Here it is: The Master List. The Magnificent 17, in alphabetical order. This is everyone and anyone who has considered running for governor in 2004 as a Republican or who has been mentioned as a serious candidate:
Lane Beattie, state Olympic officer and former Utah Senate president; Lewis Billings, Provo mayor; Fraser Bullock, Olympic Committee chief; Glen Davis, former gubernatorial candidate; Richard Paul Evans, author; Jim Hansen, former congressman; Parley Hellewell, Utah state senator; Gary Herbert, Utah County commissioner; Jon Huntsman Jr., U.S. trade ambassador; David Jordan, attorney and Board of Regents member; Nolan Karras, former Utah House speaker and Board of Regents chairman; Fred Lampropoulos, CEO of Merit Medical; Dan Lofgren, Realtor, and home builder; Al Mansell, current Utah Senate president; Dale Murphy, former professional baseball player; Mark Shurtleff, attorney general; Marty Stephens, current Utah House speaker.
Whew . . . that's a bunch. And we don't even know if Gov. Mike Leavitt is going to seek re-election. And I did leave out a few prospects I thought were just too far-fetched, like Karl Malone and Steve Young. The list could rise pretty easily.
But it really shouldn't be surprising that interest is so high. By election time it will have been 12 years, since 1992, that an open statewide seat was up for grabs. Open statewide seats are very rare. For anyone with serious political ambitions, this is the time to jump. For some people it's now or never.
Some observations about what is going to shape up as one of the most interesting political races in many, many years:
Leavitt can still win if he chooses to run. He'd have to work very hard and take a lot of flak, but he wins if he runs. I'm not sure a fourth term would be very fun.
With Lampropoulos and Karras out running hard, putting together teams, talking to opinion leaders and trying to lock up support, there's a lot of pressure on the other serious contenders to get started as well. However, a perfectly legitimate strategy is to sit back, see if the frontrunners stumble and be ready to step forward at the right time.
Presiding over a very tough legislative session, Stephens clearly has the most pressure and the harsh glare of the spotlight on him. But that's not all bad. A legislative session isn't necessarily the best forum to measure the viability and capability of a gubernatorial candidate. The jobs are very different and the skill sets are different. People will cut Stephens some slack, knowing that leading the House is like herding cats.
There's been some talk that Huntsman is being wooed to run as an independent or even as a Democrat. I'd be very surprised if he seriously considered such suggestions. He's been a lifelong Republican, served in Republican administrations and is loyal to the party. The convention will, no doubt, be a challenge for him, but he has a far better future as a Republican than anything else.
It's a brutal process. Only the highly committed will go very far. Enough strong candidates will get in the race to make the strategy and maneuvering over the next several months very interesting to watch.
Wilson: Interesting list, LaVarr. Why no women? But I am betting Gov. Leavitt is going to go for his fourth election. "Franklin Delano" Leavitt will run for a fourth term because he has nowhere else to go. Leavitt is too young and too vital to run a quiet think tank or sell insurance for the family business.
Though there are many qualified Republicans lining up to run for governor, you can forget LaVarr's list if Leavitt decides to file and run. Yes, Leavitt will have convention problems with the Republican right wing, but he will win the nomination, and it will take a very good Democratic campaign to unseat him.
So who might run that Democratic campaign? Who has the guns to go after a Mike Leavitt or other big time Republican and win?
Bill Orton comes to mind quickly. Orton was a strong member of Congress. But he ran a disappointing campaign against Leavitt in 2000. Orton announced he would not raise money early and that he would not campaign until after Labor Day. Yet he scored surprising totals in spite of the leisure plan. One wonders what he could have done with a vigorous campaign. Orton has the right conservative slant on issues to win statewide.
Jim Matheson may want to hang it up in the Second Congressional District. Some think it would be easier for him to win statewide with the opportunity to pull lots of votes from urban Utah. Utah is 80 percent cities and Matheson did well in Republican neighborhoods in Salt Lake County. It is possible he could do likewise in more moderate parts of Utah, Davis and Weber counties. Like Orton, he has shied away from liberal issues.
One of Utah's Hamlets is Scott Matheson Jr. Matheson's tendency "To be or not to be," has tickled the fantasies of many a political analyst. Former super lawyer, U.S. Attorney for Utah and now the successful Dean of the Quinney Law School at the University of Utah, don't count Matheson out. He must be encouraged by his brother's success and the enduring quality of the almost royal Matheson name.
Others who could emerge from the Democratic scrum include: Ron Allen, a Utah State Senator with increasing credibility. He is from Tooele and is a conservative with a heart (different than a conscience!). Meghan Holbrook, state Democratic chair, is a hard-worker and able to raise money. Greg Lassen, with a business background, stumbled running for county office but is still considered viable. Others from the business world are Pete Ashdown of Xmission.com, and Robert Grow, former Geneva Steel executive.
Former Attorney General Jan Graham is often mentioned and is the last Democrat to win statewide. Many are pitching Pat Jones for higher office. She is the charismatic wife of pollster Dan Jones and a highly regarded Utah House member. Then there is State Sen. Patrice Arent, a real political weapon, but perhaps it's a bit soon to run for governor.
It's hard to say that any of the Democrats could win statewide in 2004. There is just too much identity with the Republican Party, and George W. Bush will be on the ballot dragging Republicans along with him. But, then again, these are perilous times. A war gone bad, a faltering economy and the terrible tendency for history to make dramatic switches leave predicting winners difficult. You'd better write down this list of Democrats. And it could be someone no one has thought of.
Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lavarrwebb@msn.com. Democrat Ted Wilson, former Salt Lake mayor, directs the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Wilson is a friend of and a private adviser to Mayor Rocky Anderson, and he has agreed to chair his election campaign in 2003. E-mail: tednews@hotmail.com.