KABUL, Afghanistan — Amid repeated delays and furious behind-the-scenes negotiations, the country's historic constitutional assembly appeared set to open today, marking a milestone in Afghanistan's erratic journey toward democratic rule.
But the final hours before the assembly were marked by international criticism of the proposed charter, charges of delegate intimidation and reports of high-level bargaining to predetermine what form of government the nationwide assembly will choose.
In addition to disputes between the government and rival political factions over whether Afghanistan should have a presidential or parliamentary system, several sources said an equally divisive challenge has emerged from influential groups seeking to restore the Afghan monarchy.
"There are now three options on the table, and there is a serious possibility that people will go for the monarchy," said one government source. The political party promoting the monarchy isn't backed by the elderly former king, Mohammed Zahir Shah, the source said, "but they are playing an excellent card."
Diplomatic sources said late Saturday that President Hamid Karzai, assisted by U.S. officials here, had persuaded key leaders of rival Islamic and ethnic factions last week — including former President Burhanuddin Rabbani — to accept his proposal for a strong executive and a weaker parliament without a prime minister.
Karzai, 46, who has headed the country for two years as transitional leader, was said to have promised various positions of influence to those leaders if he were elected president next year. In addition, he has appointed several former Islamic militia leaders to seats at the assembly, known as a loya jirga. Most of the 500 delegates have been elected, but Karzai was allowed to name 50 members.
"I think Karzai and the Americans are going into the meeting believing they have it sewn up," said one diplomat. The loya jirga, already postponed from October, was delayed for four days this past week while intense private negotiations took place. Sources said it is now likely that Sibghatullah Mojadeddi, a respected former Afghan president, will be chosen to chair the meeting at Karzai's behest.
While Karzai may have gained the political upper hand, however, both the charter draft proposed by his administration and the process of electing delegates came under strong criticism from international monitoring and rights groups on the eve of the assembly.
The International Crisis Group, a nonprofit organization based in Brussels that follows Afghan affairs closely, said in a report issued Thursday that the draft is "significantly flawed" and "aimed purely at securing the status quo in Kabul" rather than building democratic institutions with broad national support.
The group was especially critical of the draft for specifying a "greater concentration of power in the presidency" than the version approved by a national constitutional commission. Karzai and his aides have justified this move by saying it would make for a more stable and governable country than a system with a strong prime minister as well as a president.
In a separate report issued Friday, the New York-based group Human Rights Watch said that militia leaders and commanders had threatened and bribed candidates to the loya jirga in an effort to get their supporters elected. According to some analyses, more than two-thirds of the elected delegates are affiliated with Islamic factions.
Ironically, several groups of delegates with dramatically different agendas have complained that the pre-meeting procedures have been blatantly undemocratic. Both women's rights activists and Islamic fundamentalist groups said they were upset that the loya jirga would be broken into small, private working groups, that Karzai has weighed in so forcefully on who should chair the assembly and that appointed delegates may have the right to vote.
One issue complicating the political dealmaking is the role of Islam in the constitution. Many conservative delegates want the charter to specifically enshrine strict Islamic legal codes known as sharia, a proposal that is strongly opposed by government reformists, U.S. officials and international donors.
But several sources said key Islamic leaders — including Abdurrab Rasul Sayyaf and Sayed Asif Mohsini — have now agreed not to press for changes in the current draft, which merely says that no Afghan law shall contradict the "sacred religion of Islam."
The one remaining wild card appears to be a ground swell of support to restore the monarchy — the same issue that nearly derailed a loya jirga in 2002 before U.S. officials stepped in and made sure the former king publicly opposed any move to restore him to power. Zahir Shah, now 88 and in failing health, ruled for 40 years before being deposed by a cousin in 1973.
In a peculiar twist, the pro-monarchy group at the loya jirga isn't close to the king but is headed by allies of Mohammed Daud, the cousin who overthrew him. Still, Afghan nostalgia for the monarchy is so great, especially among the majority ethnic Pashtuns, that merely invoking the king's name could sway many delegates.
The aging king — scheduled to formally inaugurate the loya jirga this morning — could be forced once again to disavow any monarchist movement. But sources close to the king, who returned to Kabul from a long exile last year, said late Saturday that his inaugural speech will neither favor nor oppose a particular form of government but rather leave it up to the delegates to choose.