WASHINGTON — Republicans say that one of their best chances nationally to pick up a Democratic House seat next year — and help maintain their narrow majority — is to win the heavily conservative district of Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah.
Surprisingly, however, that does not necessarily mean the national party will automatically send a lot of money there to help — thanks to some quirks in Utah's election system and changes in national campaign finance laws.
That may make Utah Republicans feel like they are experiencing dj vu. The national party last year also failed to give much early financial support to GOP nominee John Swallow. Many blame that for hobbling his organization and allowing Matheson to squeak out a win in the largely Republican district.
Signs of similar GOP obstacles emerge from a press round table last week by Rep. Thomas Reynolds, R-N.Y., head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which helps GOP House candidates raise money.
He said Utah's 2nd House District is indeed high on the party's watch list as it plans strategy for next year's elections.
It is one of only 27 seats where Democratic winners received less than 55 percent of the vote last year. It is also among 35 Democratic seats in what Reynolds calls "captive districts" — where Republicans figure President Bush will easily win next year, maybe helping to sweep in GOP House candidates on his coattails.
On top of that, Reynolds figures the Utah seat is among only about four dozen of the House's 435 seats that are truly competitive — and those 48 or so will determine which party holds the House majority.
While that would appear to make the Utah seat an obvious target for national GOP money, some problems could prevent that. The first is that Utah's election system chooses a GOP nominee relatively slowly, while national money tends to flow to places where nominees are known earlier.
With a New York accent akin to that of actor Joe Pesci, Reynolds says, "In Utah, which makes them a little unusual, they got both a primary and a convention. That's the worst of both worlds for a guy like me. I either want them to pick a primary process or pick a convention. But geez, why do you have to have both?"
In short, Reynolds says, "That makes their whole process move slow." The convention to narrow an expected large GOP field (which almost surely will include Swallow again) to two candidates will occur in early May. The primary to choose the nominee is scheduled for June 21.
That is relatively late for the NRCC to decide how strong the nominee is and whether scarce money should go to him or other more favorable races.
Reynolds said the NRCC plans to help fight for the Utah nominee, "unless, of course, they don't meet the requirement for producing a strong candidate and moving forward."
Utah's system not only delays making that assessment while nominees and incumbents elsewhere are screaming for money, but it also weakens how Utah nominees are seen.
When the Utah GOP nominee emerges, his or her campaign funds will likely be drained by the convention and primary races. Unfortunately, a key test by parties of candidate strength is money in the bank.
Even if the nominee is considered strong enough for support, election law changes mean that the NRCC will have less money to give.
Congress outlawed unlimited "soft money" donations to parties, which were used in the past for party ads that indirectly benefited its candidates (such as by showing pictures of them with the president) without specifically urging a vote for or against someone. Now parties must work entirely on donation-limited "hard money."
"You have to work twice as hard for half the money," Reynolds said.
In short, the NRCC may not have a lot of money for a Utah challenger. Any eventual GOP nominee in Utah cannot expect automatic help from the NRCC.
Somewhere, Matheson — who has been raising money well — is smiling. He's still considering whether to run for governor instead, but the hesitancy of Republicans to take advantage of a golden opportunity with gold brightens his House race chances.
Deseret News Washington correspondent Lee Davidson can be reached by e-mail at lee@desnews.com.