STUTTGART, Germany — The talk in U.S. Gen. Charles F. Wald's office here veers from al-Qaida to oil pipelines to borderless enemies. And the general, who likes to point to the big map on the wall, is less focused on his base in Central Europe than on emerging trouble spots such as resource-rich Nigeria and the Caspian region.
The U.S. military in Europe, with 112,000 troops and once a counterbalance to communist ambitions, is looking south and east. Arguing that the United States needs a leaner, quicker military to respond to new threats largely outside Europe, the Pentagon wants to reconfigure American bases overseas, setting up small outposts on the turf of new allies such as Bulgaria and scaling back in long-standing host nations such as Germany.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld's desire to deploy tens of thousands of troops to smaller, scattered bases would expand America's global reach. But it would drastically alter the U.S. presence in Central Europe that dates to World War II and endured during the Cold War, yet now faces a continent uncomfortable with U.S. military power. It also would change rotation rules, meaning that many service members might be subject to longer periods away from home and would no longer be permitted to bring their families to Europe, resulting in a huge economic loss for the continent.
"We're not going to build any more little Americas," said Wald, deputy commander of the U.S. European Command. He was referring to the sprawling bases, such as those in Germany near Heidelberg and Ramstein that provide 130,000 U.S. military dependents with playgrounds, schools, supermarkets and family housing compounds named for famous Americans such as Mark Twain.
"We'll get smaller," he said of European operations, adding that the goal is "a force that's more mobile, flexible and deployable."
Plans on the exact look and size of the new overseas U.S. armed forces have not been finalized. Military officials stress that American interests in Central Europe, including its leadership role in NATO , will not diminish. And some long-standing operations such as Ramstein Air Base, which allows quick deployments to the Mediterranean region, are not expected to be affected.
Yet it is clear that Bulgaria and Romania, which are closer to the Middle East and the Caucasus and supported the U.S. war in Iraq, are the newest darlings of Washington, D.C., in Europe. Germany, which houses 84 percent of all U.S. troops on the continent, has lost much of its strategic cachet. U.S. officials say tens of thousands of troops in Germany might be shifted to Eastern Europe to follow NATO expansion into nations such as Poland and Hungary. Thousands more might wind up in Africa.
Central Europe, Wald said, is prosperous and stable and no longer needs a large U.S. military presence. Eastern Europe is desperate for development and a chance to enhance its stature through ties to the U.S. military.
His eyes then shifted south, focusing on Nigeria. "Eight percent to 14 percent of the (United States') oil comes from Nigeria," he said, adding that in the future that figure might jump to 25 percent.
The economic and cultural effects of shifting U.S. bases would be enormous.
The U.S. European Command's annual budget is about $13.7 billion. It employs 20,000 civilians. The command's headquarters in Stuttgart — one of hundreds of U.S. installations in Central Europe — pumps $150 million to $175 million into the local economy each year. No one has suggested that the overall command will be downsized significantly. But U.S. military dollars and jobs gradually will leave Germany and might become windfalls for economically struggling Eastern European countries that are more politically welcoming and have less strict environmental laws. The Pentagon has long complained of the millions of dollars it spends each year to comply with environmental regulations.
"It's an accidental Marshall Plan," said Wald, referring to the multibillion-dollar U.S. program to rebuild Europe after World War II.
A big man who walks with a swagger, Wald, a career Air Force officer who has flown more than 450 combat hours, said that despite the strained atmosphere between the United States and many of its traditional European allies over the war in Iraq, the decision to move positions east is "not vindictive, not a payback."
Rather, he asserted that the plans are a logical progression for the European Command, whose troop deployment extends beyond the continent, covering 93 countries and territories sprawling across 21 million square miles. Since the Cold War ended, he noted, the number of U.S. troops in Europe has fallen from 315,000 to 112,000.
U.S. strategic interests in Europe began shifting the day the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. In the intervening decade, however, the U.S. military was preoccupied with the 1991 Persian Gulf War and conflicts in the Balkans.
Western Europe changed amid this turmoil. It formed a single currency and made plans for its own military force apart from NATO. It increasingly resented what it regarded as America's unilateralist policies; cracks in the 50-year-old Atlantic alliance widened further when George W. Bush was elected president in 2000.
Meanwhile, the al-Qaida terrorist network began global attacks, Africa became a crossroads for terrorists, the Middle East peace between Israelis and Palestinians again deteriorated into bloodshed, and construction began on an oil pipeline that would stretch through unstable ex-Soviet republics and into Turkey. The world's dangers grew more fragmented and shadowy, and disputes over how to handle them divided the trans-Atlantic partnership.
Unlike today's "little Americas," the U.S. overseas bases of the future will be scaled-down installations of plywood and prefabricated buildings that house troops, gyms, movie theaters and Burger Kings. They can be assembled and disassembled easily.
Troops would rotate through them every three months to one year. For example, if a conflict broke out in the Caspian region, troops headquartered in the United States could deploy to a small base in Romania. They could train, link up with equipment positioned on ships at sea and quickly advance.
In peacetime, such bases could run with skeleton crews.
Military officials point to Camp Bondsteel in the Serbian province of Kosovo as a model for future overseas operations. Housing about 3,500 troops, the base has helicopter pads, mobile buildings and tents. It can shrink and expand as units rotate in and out. Its location is suited for deploying troops in the Balkans or toward the Middle East.
"This is the transformed presence we want to have," said one Army major. "We call them 'warm bases,' places you can activate by throwing a switch. Like at Bondsteel, you can bring troop numbers up or down."
Smaller, more scattered bases would give the U.S. quicker access to a wider swath of the world, but they might antagonize militant organizations that view them as symbols of American hegemony. U.S. officials are concerned about the possibility of making U.S. troops more vulnerable to terrorist attacks — a point highlighted during an interview in Wald's office, where a TV set broadcast images from suicide blasts at Western housing compounds in Saudi Arabia. One compound housed many former U.S. military members who train the Saudi National Guard.
"It's a dynamic you have to consider," said Wald, adding that the United States cannot be perceived as moving into countries and imposing its will and values on Muslim societies. "This has to be done with the right (public relations) ... But the alternative is isolationism."
Most tours in Europe now are two years and allow for family accompaniment. Under the new proposals, not only would rotations be shorter, but families would remain in the United States."