NEW YORK — A handful of players are certain to be selected with the first picks of the baseball draft. How it shakes out after that is anyone's guess.
"It will never be an exact science," said Tampa Bay general manager Chuck LaMar, whose team has the first selection today in baseball's first-year player draft.
"Every team in baseball has taken players high in the draft thinking they were made up one way and after four or five years, things change," he said. "That's the way our business is."
The Devil Rays appeared to be focused on Southern University second baseman Rickie Weeks and high school outfielders Delmon Young and Ryan Harvey.
"You're talking about three talented — physically talented — young kids and they all seem to have a work ethic," LaMar said. "All three have a chance to be good. I think these three position players will be in the top six or seven probably on just about everybody's list."
And for good reason.
Weeks, a Golden Spikes finalist and one of college baseball's most exciting hitters, finished the season virtually assured of becoming just the second player in Division I history to win consecutive batting titles.
Young, from Camarillo High School in California, is the brother of Detroit Tigers outfielder Dmitri Young — who was taken with the No. 4 pick by St. Louis in 1991. Delmon has shown incredible power and became a star when he led Team USA to a bronze medal last summer at the World Junior Championship in Canada.
"It would always be great to play with my brother," Dmitri said. "But the way the Tigers are sounding, he might not make it to three."
Harvey, from Dunedin High School in Florida, is a five-tool player who has great speed. He put on a power display in front of Tampa Bay officials at Tropicana Field last week.
"He's a major league prospect who one day will become a fine major league player," LaMar said.
"We would be happy with any of those guys," Tigers scouting director Greg Smith said. "We have a scenario that we'd like see happen ahead of us, but we'll be very excited when we go to bed on Tuesday with whoever we are fortunate enough to pick out of that group."
The Devil Rays have the No. 1 pick for the second time — they selected high school outfielder Josh Hamilton in 1999. Milwaukee has the second pick Tuesday, followed by Detroit, San Diego and Kansas City. Seattle, Atlanta, Houston and Philadelphia don't have picks in the first round after signing Type A free agents.
Other players expected to be high picks include Wake Forest right-hander Kyle Sleeth, Richmond righty Tim Stauffer, Tulane first baseman Michael Aubrey, Florida high school outfielder Lastings Milledge, Massachusetts high school right-hander Jeff Allison and Texas high school lefty John Danks.
The ability to sign a drafted player is one of the major concerns for teams.
"The biggest thing that's changed is the signability — the way the signing bonuses have escalated," Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin said. "My first draft in 1985, I was scouting director of the Yankees, and I don't remember agents being involved. But now, they all have agents."
Teams have also shown a trend in recent years to lean toward college players, thinking that the risk is lower and they are closer to making an impact at the major league level.
"That's obviously a part of the decisionmaking process," Smith said. "I think you evaluate talent first because you want an impact player when you're picking as high as we are. But we're also looking for a player's makeup and his signability."
Everyone seems to have a take on this year's crop of players.
"Overall, the 2003 draft class is average, but it does have more depth than usual," said Roger Jongewaard, Seattle's vice president of scouting and player development. "While there aren't as many standouts at the very top of the draft, there will be good prospects for several rounds."
Smith sounded fortunate to be picking near the top this year.
"There are some good players, but I don't think it's the best group we've seen in a while at all," Smith said. "We're going to get a good player with our third pick, but I don't think teams picking from eight-to-20 are as comfortable as we are."
Other than Young, there are a number of players with famous bloodlines who could get drafted, including: San Diego State outfielder Anthony Gwynn, son of Tony Gwynn; North Carolina State outfielder Joe Gaetti, son of Gary Gaetti; Oral Roberts first baseman Andy Hargrove, son of Baltimore manager Mike Hargrove; and California high school lefty Brian Schroeder, son of former NFL quarterback Jay Schroeder.
The draft, conducted by conference call with all 30 major league teams, runs through Wednesday and will last 50 rounds. Pittsburgh took Ball State right-hander Bryan Bullington with the top pick last year.
"Ultimately, you just keep asking yourself the same question: If everything clicks, who has the chance to have the most impact at the major league level?" LaMar said. "All these players we're considering, right now on paper, are going to have impact at the major league level."