PROVO — Congressman Chris Cannon is sure he'll land 50 percent or more of the votes today at the state Republican convention. One of his challengers says he has locked up 48 to 52 percent of committed delegates while the other believes he'll get 40 percent or more.
If that sounds like fuzzy math, welcome to the upside-down world of Republican delegate politics in 2004, and a hair-raising moment for Cannon in his bid for a fifth term.
Nearly half of the delegates in the 3rd Congressional District are new. Cannon estimated that another quarter of them have been to only one convention. The volatility introduced to the process by these newcomers made it impossible for Cannon and challengers Matt Throckmorton and Greg Hawkins to confidently forecast today's outcome.
Sure, the candidates have polled the 1,099 delegates who will decide the 3rd District contest, but the only clear picture that emerged is that hundreds of delegates are either stubbornly keeping their decisions to themselves or are waiting until today to make up their minds.
And that raised the distinct possibility that Cannon won't win 60 percent of the vote and the automatic nomination that comes with it.
"All the polls are basically saying the same thing, that nobody has 60 percent," Hawkins said.
If that holds true, the two top vote-getters will advance to a June primary with the winner facing Democrat Beau Babka in November.
Cannon admitted to anxiety on the eve of the convention.
"This year is dramatically different," he said. "First, it's hard to predict delegates who are new. Then this rash of outside interference raised the issue of immigration to higher than it's ever been."
Throckmorton and some national anti-immigration groups attacked Cannon for sponsoring a bill that would provide the possibility of permanent legal status to millions of illegal immigrants working in the agricultural industry. He has criticized the groups and Throckmorton for saying the bill provides amnesty.
Cannon said delegates always ask about immigration, although Hawkins said the issue seemed to dissipate this week.
"Delegates are now getting down to why are you running and what would you give us different than the other guy," Hawkins said.
Cannon flew back from Washington, D.C., on Friday morning and spent the day calling delegates. One of his messages was a warning designed to underscore his incumbency.
"I'm not one to claim deference for an incumbent," he said, "but there are two benefits. One is they have committee assignments. Second, they have developed relationships of influence. You can't have those without time.
"One of the things people don't get is if I'm not re-elected, the best-case scenario for Republicans in Utah is that we beat (Democrat) Jim Matheson and (Republican) Rob Bishop as a sophomore heads the Utah delegation. The worst-case scenario is Jim Matheson becomes the head of the delegation and, if I can be beat in the Republican Party, one of my opponents will be vulnerable" to Beau Babka.
Hawkins, a Salt Lake attorney who ran against Sen. Orrin Hatch in 2000, said his polls show him running neck-and-neck with Cannon among committed delegates. But with so many undecideds — 30 to 40 percent of the delegates, according to most counts — it's impossible to be certain what exactly that means.
All those undecideds allowed the candidates to feel like they were building momentum entering the convention as some made choices in the closing days and hours. Throckmorton, a Springville flooring contractor and former state legislator, said he added several dozen delegates after a meeting on Wednesday.
"We're definitely right at the threshold of 40 percent," he said.
All the number-crunching — and some of the uncertainty — will end today.
"The last 24 hours are mostly anxiety as you wonder if your whole life is going to change this weekend," Hawkins said, "or will you keep doing the same thing."
E-mail: twalch@desnews.com