President Bush's job approval rating remained below 50 percent in three new polls amid voter concerns about the war in Iraq, the economy and rising gasoline prices.

John Zogby, president of the Zogby International survey firm, sees the trend so alarming that he is predicting a Kerry victory this fall. His April poll showed Kerry leading Bush by 54-35 percent among those who cited the economy as the top issue, and by 57-36 percent among those citing Iraq. Bush leads, 64-30 percent, among those who say fighting terrorism is their top issue.

Zogby said his current poll is finding less than 10 percent respondents say they are undecided between Kerry and Bush. Usually, 20 percent of respondents haven't made up their minds yet, he said. That means there are few voters for either candidate can reach out to.

"Traditionally, undecideds break toward the challenger," Zogby said in an interview.

A Fox News-Opinion Dynamics poll taken May 4-5 found 49 percent of registered voters approve of the job Bush is doing as president and 43 percent disapprove. A May 3-6 American Research Group Inc. survey put Bush's approval rating at 45 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. In a USA Today-Cable News Network poll taken Friday through Sunday, Bush's approval rating was 46 percent with 51 percent disapproving, the lowest of his term.

Bush and Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry also remained in a statistical tie when voters were asked whom they would choose if the election were held now.

"This is more of a referendum on Bush than it is on the merits of John Kerry," said Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group. "The real question is whether we stick with Bush for four more years or do we try someone else."

Both surveys were conducted as Bush, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and members of Congress were reacting to publication of photos showing U.S. soldiers abusing detainees at an Iraqi prison. Bush apologized for the abuses last Wednesday, and Rumsfeld did the same on Friday. Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, was joined by Democratic congressional leaders in calling for Rumsfeld's resignation.

U.S. forces in Iraq also endured their deadliest month in war during April, with at least 140 soldiers, sailors and Marines killed by insurgents.

At the same time, slow job creation and rising gasoline prices have dampened optimism about the economy, a University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, released April 30, showed.

Given the news out of Iraq, Bush's approval rating "is holding up remarkably well," Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said in an interview on Friday. "There's a lot of stability" in Bush's poll numbers.

William Mayer, a political science professor at Boston's Northeastern University, said that six months before the vote, such match-ups questions "are pretty meaningless."

He cited late April, early May polls in 1988 showing Democrat Michael Dukakis beating then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, the current president's father, 54 percent to 38 percent. Bush won the election with 53 percent of the vote. In 1992, Bush led Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton 41 percent to 26 percent. Clinton ended up besting Bush 43 percent to 37 percent.

Presidential approval ratings have been indicators in recent elections. President George H.W. Bush had an approval rating of 39 percent in April 1992 and lost his re-election bid to Clinton that November, according to data compiled by the Pew Research Center in Washington. Clinton had a 53 percent approval rating in April 1996 and won a second term.

"Once you are elected to office, your approval rating is your report card," Democratic political consultant Glenn Totten, who is not working on this year's presidential race, said. "Anything less than 50 percent is a failing grade."

Bush's approval rating is "low enough that they ought to be worried," Mayer said. "But Kerry has to show that he's a plausible alternative, and I don't know that he's run the kind of campaign that would convince a lot of people of that."

Voters may defect if the news from Iraq doesn't improve, gas prices continue to rise and the economy doesn't replace the net loss of 1.5 million jobs since Bush took office, Bennett said. The economy was the issue most often cited by voters surveyed as their top concern.

Fox found Bush leading Kerry by 44 percent to 41 percent among registered voters nationwide if the election were held now, within the poll's 3 percentage-point margin of error. American Research found Kerry ahead of Bush by 47 percent to 44 percent, also within the survey's 3.5 percentage-point error margin. In the USA Today-CNN survey, conducted by the Gallup Organization Bush led Kerry among likely voters 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error for the part of the poll of 575 likely voters was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The race also is close in the battle for individual states as the two candidates try to collect the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, the Associated Press said its analysis of public and private polls showed. Bush has an edge in 24 states that account for 205 electoral votes, and Kerry has a lead in 14 states and Washington, D.C., for 205 electoral votes, according to the AP.

The Fox poll surveyed 900 registered voters. The American Research survey matching the two major party candidates called 770 registered voters, while its survey on approval ratings survey called 1,100 people over age 18 and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. The USA Today-CNN poll surveyed 1,003 adults nationwide for the approval ratings and had an error margin of 3 percentage points.

View Comments

The only nonpartisan source predicting a Bush landslide is Ray Fair of Yale University's International Center for Finance. Using a mathematical equation that figures in economic growth and inflation in addition to party votes and incumbency, Fair's model predicts that Bush will get 58 percent of the vote Nov. 2.

Fair says his equation may not be accurate if voters become more concerned about foreign policy and social policy rather than the economy when they go to the polls.

Fair's model picked Democratic Vice President Al Gore over Bush in 2000, and George H.W. Bush over Clinton in 1992.


Contributing: Kristin Jensen

Join the Conversation
Looking for comments?
Find comments in their new home! Click the buttons at the top or within the article to view them — or use the button below for quick access.