Determining the fate of Utah's Hill Air Force Base may be put off for at least another two years, after the House Armed Services Committee voted Wednesday to delay the 2005 round of military base closures.
The process, however, is far from over — the committee decision must still be approved by the full House, as well as the Senate, and the White House could veto any proposed delay.
Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, voted to postpone the base closures even though he's "not convinced this is the answer," according to his spokesman, Scott Parker. "The vote today for him might have been more about sending a message to the Pentagon. . . . Delaying it doesn't solve too many problems."
The military brass need to be aware that Congress is paying close attention to the latest round of base closings, Parker said, as well as that Wednesday's decision could be a first step toward eliminating the base closure commission altogether.
So is the vote good news for Utah?
"Actually, it's about the same," Parker said. "Sort of the story of BRAC (the Base Realignment and Closure Commission) is wait and see and hold our breath and do what we think is right at the time."
The Pentagon wants to close nearly 25 percent of its bases despite the ongoing war in Iraq and the continuing fight against terrorism, saying the move will save about $6 billion a year. Current law requires the secretary of defense to provide a list of base closure recommendations to President Bush by May 16, 2005, and a finalized list by September of that year.
Utah Defense Alliance Executive Director Rick Mayfield believes the Pentagon will ultimately gets its way.
"I think it's very doubtful that (the delay) is going to get passed," Mayfield said. "It's kind of a political thing right now. I don't think it will go anywhere, but it's hard to tell in an election year."
Base closures are naturally politically unsavory when the country is at war, but a delay of any amount of time simply delays the agony for a base community, Mayfield said.
"The bottom line is that (the government) has to get rid of some of its infrastructure to (financially) support the troops," he said. "I would say right now it (the vote) is probably more connected to the political process . . . , some representatives trying to show the folks at home that they are trying to do what they can to protect their bases."
Jim Hansen, a former senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, also believes the delay has to do with good press for people seeking re-election.
"In my opinion, at this stage of the game, I seriously doubt — if it makes it through the House floor — I seriously doubt the Senate will follow through with the same action. I seriously doubt the president and the military establishment" will follow through, he said.
"I think it politically makes a few people look good, in my opinion. I think it's more of a media thing than anything."
Hansen is considered a potential appointee to the base closure commission.
Whether one base is more vulnerable to closure than another is also unknown, as there is no clear sense of how the relative worth of each bases is being evaluated, Hansen said.
"I think almost all bases are on an endangered species list, and I don't think (Hill) is any more vulnerable than the majority of bases. There's probably a small percentage of bases that are less vulnerable than others, but I think everybody else has to worry."
Mayfield said he is optimistic about Hill's chances. Several of the functions and missions performed there are unique to Hill, and although they may not require large numbers of personnel, the programs may be enough to buoy the whole base.
"There are a lot of positive things as far as Hill," he said.
The alliance, which has worked through previous base closure threats, commissioned a study that found the loss of Hill would be devastating for Davis County and a setback to the Utah economy. Conducted by the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the study predicted per-capita income levels would drop by more than $2,600 in Davis County and $542 statewide.
There are some 24,000 civilian jobs at Hill, more than at other bases nationwide. Those jobs pay an average of almost $60,000 annually, more than twice what the typical Utahn earns.
Committee members tried to eliminate the base-closing process Wednesday, but GOP leaders blocked the move, arguing it would provoke the White House into vetoing the 2005 defense authorization bill.
"The only thing better than delaying a (base-closing) process is doing away with it altogether," said Rep. Gene Taylor, R-Miss., sponsor of the base-closing measure.
Last year, an armed services subcommittee adopted Taylor's plan to eliminate the 2005 round of base closings, but GOP leaders scuttled the legislation. Increased pressure within their ranks forced them to offer the two-year delay as a compromise Wednesday.
"There's no chance to kill a BRAC," said Rep. Joel Hefley, R-Colo., chairman of the military readiness subcommittee. "The timing is simply not right, and delaying BRAC is simply a more sensible approach."
Contributing: Gannett News Service; Laura Hancock, Deseret Morning News
E-mail: jdobner@desnews.com; lisa@desnews.com