Ask 10 different people to analyze what happened in last Saturday's state GOP convention and you'll get 10 different answers.
But one way to look at the multifaceted dynamics of the 3,500-delegate convention, with a preferential ballot that confused intentions as well, is to compare it to an inexorable part of nature: The tide rolled in Saturday in the South Towne Expo Center, raising some candidates while drowning others.
And Nolan Karras was the great beneficiary of the moon's gravitational pull.
"About a week out we saw signs of trouble," says Dave Hansen, Fred Lampropoulos' campaign manager.
Lampropoulos, despite spending $2 million of his own money, finished third in the June 22 GOP primary that will match Karras with Jon Huntsman Jr.
Huntsman and Lampropoulos were considered one and two in the delegate count several weeks ago.
"I thought there might be a wave, someone moving up. In part, that was because so many (of the other eight candidates) seemed stuck. No one was moving," says Hansen.
While Lampropoulos had talked openly about his personal life, his three divorces and fourth marriage last fall, Hansen said when the "whispering about Fred" started several weeks ago, it moved more quickly and more intensely than expected.
In his convention speech, Lampropoulos said he likened himself to Ronald Reagan, "a divorced, conservative actor who became a good president." The word "divorce" was not in the first draft of the speech, said Hansen. "We added that" because they felt they needed to publicly address the issue that was running through delegate ranks.
Meanwhile, GOP Gov. Olene Walker's campaign was struggling, actively opposed by several conservative groups, including the school-choice supporters.
Said Hansen: "Karras was becoming to the delegates the safe choice. You don't want Olene? You don't know Huntsman? You don't like what you're hearing about Fred? What about Nolan?" Picking current GOP vice chairwoman Enid Greene, a former U.S. House member, as his running mate also helped Karras, all agree.
Karras got another big boost the morning of the convention when the Utah Education Association caucus, between 180 and 300 delegates strong, depending on how you count them, decided only to vote Walker first and Karras second on the ballot, no one else listed.
"I think it made a difference" for Karras, said Susan Kuziak, UEA executive director. "I think that if we had put Fred second" on those teacher-delegate ballots "he would have come out."
UEA can't take all the credit, however. GOP vote-counters say Karras knocked out Lampropoulos by 273 votes in the sixth round of ballot-counting, likely more than the teacher union could muster.
(This leads to another question: Will GOP bosses want to stick with the preferential ballot system if there's a possibility that a group like the UEA can, by bloc voting, affect convention results in a major race?)
Karras' upward movement was countered by other candidates' slippage, several convention-watchers say.
Some delegates didn't like Huntsman's wealth, good looks and upper-class experience as an ambassador in the two Bush administrations, several delegates told me Saturday.
Utah House Speaker Marty Stephens, who many believed was the classy conservative choice, was mired in 12 years of incumbency, the last six as speaker. How could he say the Mike Leavitt/Olene Walker administration had gone on a spending spree when he "allowed" such budgets to go through the Legislature, another delegate told me.
The credit unions' direct mail pieces and telephone calls to delegates last week bashing Stephens (who worked for Zions bank until he quit last year), may have been unneeded, even mean-spirited, but it likely put the last nail in Stephens' political coffin.
Walker's defeat wasn't a surprise to anyone who was paying attention.
While popular herself among all Utahns, she was burdened by 11 years of a Leavitt administration that was not well-liked by a number of conservative Republicans. Remember, Leavitt himself was booed at the 2000 GOP convention and forced into a primary with a virtual unknown GOP challenger.
As one of the other GOP candidates said this week, "people were just tired of Leavitt/Walker."
Former 22-year U.S. House veteran Jim Hansen gave a good convention speech, but that die was already cast. And when 1st District Rep. Rob Bishop seconded Karras' convention nomination, Jim Hansen was reportedly personally hurt, especially after he helped get Bishop situated in the GOP-controlled U.S. House last year.
In fact, some ill-feelings — be they deserved or not — may linger against Karras, who personally is a candid, straight-shooting guy, because of convention actions/politics he had little or nothing to do with.
Top Karras supporters also have ties to the credit unions, Stephens' nemesis. And Karras is a friend not only to Walker but to Leavitt as well. So some of the ousted candidates and their supporters may be looking toward Huntsman rather than Karras in the primary.
But the primary is a different dog than the convention. Individual grudges count less in that much-larger playing field.
If Karras can raise some money, raise his name ID and get his government, civic and business rsum before voters, he's got a chance against the better-funded, better-known Huntsman.
It's five and a half weeks to Election Day.
Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com