Never.
Never in my lifetime will shale oil be a viable fuel resource. Been there, done that. I'm a survivor of the Colorado West Slope's boom and bust of the late 1970s and early 1980s. If an OPEC embargo didn't force the hand of the oil industry to start squeezing oil out of shale reserves, it's doubtful that current market conditions will either.
I'm reasonably assured that I'll be driving a car fueled by hydrogen or another alternative fuel before I'm filling up at the pump with gasoline extracted from oil shale deposits in Utah, Wyoming or Colorado. Every time the oil shale specter raises its head, as it has recently in the wake of record oil prices, I want to tell the industry spokesman to take a deep, cleansing breath until the feeling of "irrational exuberance" passes.
People in northwestern Colorado were cautiously optimistic about oil shale development in the 1970s. When Parachute, Colo., literally sprung up overnight, natural skepticism started to wane. After all, the federal government was providing millions of dollars in subsidies, and some companies even had federal contracts to buy the shale oil at about twice the going rate of crude oil. Thousands of jobs would be created. What could go wrong?
The short answer is, it didn't work. The plan was to mine the shale and heat it in massive ovens until kerogen, a waxy petroleum, could be extracted. The kerogen would be condensed and refined as gasoline, jet fuel or diesel fuel.
Despite massive amounts of corporate welfare and sky high optimism, no one was able to extract kerogen at a profit. Boom went bust and 2,500 people were out of work.
No surprise then, that talk of an oil shale revival is looked upon warily, even with advances in technology that would send an electrical current through the shale to essentially melt the kerogen out of the rock. It would then be pumped out using traditional oil extraction equipment. This is supposedly more environmentally friendly, because there's no mining or waste rock, although electrifying the shale would still use a lot of water and energy.
Oil shale development was billed as an answer to the United States' dependence on foreign oil. It clearly wasn't so, and thanks to a greater number of cars on the road and the return of the gas-guzzlers, Americans are more dependent on oil imports than ever. But unlike the 1970s, there's no oil shortage. It's more a personal finance shortage when you gas up your car.
Unfortunately, Arab nations control the spigot (and the price) for a good portion of our oil, although the United States imports a lot from Venezuela, Mexico and Canada. Despite what some politicos will have you believe, we're not completely beholden to the Middle East.
But we do have a problem with refining capacity. I must have read a dozen e-mails in recent weeks that say there hasn't been a new refinery built in the United States in 20 years. I don't know if that's a fact, but I do know that refining capacity is more limited this time of year as refineries shift to lighter summer fuels or perform routine maintenance. As Memorial Day approaches, we can expect another price hike due to greater demand. After Labor Day, prices tend to stabilize. It happens every year like clockwork.
Americans will weather the latest gas hikes without making any drastic lifestyle changes. More people will pull out the charge cards at the pump, but I don't foresee a huge increase of mass transit riders, an uptick in carpooling or more telecommuting.
And I predict that oil companies will continue to invest more money in crude oil production outside the United States, where labor costs are lower and the environmental standards are more relaxed. I don't happen to count either as a plus, but for oil companies, both help with the bottom line.
Except for the political aspects of drilling oil in the Middle East or other places where Americans aren't on the hit parade these days, it makes more sense to extract known deposits of crude oil there than to gamble on shale oil extraction technology that only works under certain conditions.
If small Western towns are going to commit their precious water, energy and labors to oil shale development, it can't be the bust it was 20 years ago. Neither the technology nor the investment community is prepared to take the leap because the oil industry isn't that desperate for oil.
But will the day come that America's need for fossil fuel will be so great that we'll be willing to electrify the earth to melt it out of the rocks?
Not in my lifetime.
Marjorie Cortez is a Deseret Morning News editorial writer.
E-mail: marjorie@desnews.com.