Webb: The Jon Huntsman Jr.-Nolan Karras Republican gubernatorial primary is shaping up as one terrific contest. Huntsman starts with higher name identification and more money, but he's not going to coast to an easy victory.
In fact, one of Huntsman's challenges is to manage expectations. If the conventional wisdom is that he will easily win this thing, then when the race inevitably tightens he'll be seen as losing momentum.
Despite all the fun and excitement of the recent state GOP convention, the average Republican voter isn't even paying attention to politics. When voters do start paying attention and focus on the candidates, it will be a very close race.
The themes of the short, intense campaign are starting to take shape. Karras will try to pound home his "substance vs. image" message. He will contrast his broad experience in state government, education and a variety of business ventures, particularly his fiscal capabilities, with Huntsman's experience that has been focused mostly at the federal level and in one large family corporation. Huntsman, age 44, is 15 years younger than Karras, 59.
Huntsman will respond with his "New Day for Utah" theme, arguing that Utah needs a new generation of leadership. The implication will be that Karras is part of the old establishment, with extremely close ties to the Leavitt-Walker administration that has ruled Utah for 12 years, and has run out of steam. Karras will be portrayed as status quo, business-as-usual, part of a generation that has had its day, while Huntsman will bring fresh ideas and new energy to state government.
Underlying the basic themes will be some other fascinating things to watch for. The campaign will be very short, and the election will be decided by relatively few Republican voters. The temptation will therefore exist to accept help from well-funded large organizations that already have in place networks of motivated and organized voters.
The large government employee unions like the Utah Education Association and the Utah Public Employees Association, in addition to the PTA and the higher education community are, no doubt, poised to get involved in the race, covertly if not overtly.
And Karras would be the likely beneficiary of their involvement. They know him and like him and he has struck moderate positions on issues like tuition tax credits.
But if Karras is perceived as the candidate favored by the government unions, he runs the risk of alienating conservative groups, taxpayer groups and key business groups. It also plays into the perception that he is the status quo, business-as-usual candidate, supported by special interests groups.
The big question is, who can turn out the votes in a June 22 closed Republican primary? Both candidates will have to run intense grass-roots campaigns that reach out, individually, to the relatively small number of citizens who are likely to vote. Big mass media buys won't help much.
It is a real test of the organizational, leadership and persuasive skills of two very fine candidates. And the best candidate will win.
Pignanelli: Early in the election season, one candidate for governor publicly announced his intentions to eliminate sales tax on food, prohibit disposal of higher levels of radioactive waste and seek ethical reform in state government through banning gifts to the governor and lawmakers. The original proponent of these progressive proposals is not Democrat Scott Matheson Jr., but Republican Jon Huntsman Jr. Within weeks of introducing these ideas, Huntsman managed to engender the anger of legislators, lobbyists, local elected officials (who want those food tax dollars) and the powerful radioactive waste industry. In Utah politics, this qualifies as true bravery.
Despite these risks, Huntsman's plans are attracting younger Republicans who possess conservative ideals on moral issues but are sympathetic to realistic solutions to environmental and poverty concerns. There is some genius to this strategy. For example, the food tax removal demonstrates fiscal frugality and a social conscience — no easy task for a Republican.
Unique and compelling ideas can be powerful tools in elections. Many remember the 1997 governor's race in Virginia when Republican James Gilmore came from behind to defeat Democrat Lt. Gov. Donald Beyer. Gilmore caught the imagination of the electorate with his promise to slash the state's car tax. State politicians were unaware how unpopular the vehicle fee was until Gilmore offered up its repeal. Huntsman will need the tactical advantage his proposals convey. Nolan Karras is already on the offensive, pushing his enormous business and government experience to contrast with Huntsman's relative youth. In the pre-convention debates, delegates were impressed with Karras' command of the issues and straightforward analysis of state financial matters.
I served with Karras in the Legislature and found him to be a tough but fair leader. He weathered tremendous abuse from conservatives for shepherding Gov. Norman Bangerter's controversial tax increases during the economic doldrums of the late 1980s. Karras enjoyed bipartisan respect, despite his "thin skin" to criticism. (His skin is thicker now, the result of numerous stabs in the back from "friends.") Both GOP contenders have forwarded substantive recommendations on the usual topics: Karras will implement a five-year plan to impose fiscal constraints on the state budget (while enhancing higher education); Huntsman has developed an impressive 40-page economic development strategy that is the culmination of months of deliberation by business leaders.
Huntsman's willingness to lead out on propositions that until now were the province of populist advocacy groups, combined with Karras' thoughtful critiques, is a promising sign. The Republican primary may actually be an invigorating discussion of important issues and not another ideological battle to appease right-wing factions.
Days before the Republican convention, several state employees received phone calls and fliers at their government offices encouraging them to attend the event. These communications were not subtle: Go, support Olene Walker and keep your job.
Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. A recent candidate for Salt Lake mayor, Pignanelli served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.