PROVO — Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, leads fellow Republican Matt Throckmorton in their primary match-up for the 3rd Congressional District seat, according to a new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll.
If the primary were held today, Cannon would defeat Throckmorton, 47 percent to 25, with 19 percent undecided.
Cannon and Throckmorton both lead Democratic nominee Beau Babka, pollster Dan Jones found in a survey conducted last week. It has a margin of error of 5.5 percent.
While Throckmorton trails Cannon, he thinks the poll shows Cannon might be a vulnerable four-term incumbent.
"The first thing is that Chris should be in the low 60s," Throckmorton said. "These numbers show a bit of concern with what's going on. And I bet that of those 47 out of 100 people, most probably don't know how passionately Chris supported (the) No Child Left Behind (education-reform act). Our campaign will clearly articulate where we stand on No Child Left Behind, immigration and the national debt. The numbers are going to change a little bit."
Throckmorton predicted he would win 42 to 45 percent of the vote at the state Republican convention to force Cannon into the primary. He ultimately earned 42 percent.
"It's going to be a close race," he said.
Cannon's camp is not assuming anything.
"The poll shows we obviously start out in a pretty strong position," said Joe Hunter, Cannon's chief of staff. "That notwithstanding, we plan a very aggressive campaign. And we have all the tools to do so."
One tool Cannon appeared reluctant to use before the state convention is debates. But Cannon sent a letter to Throckmorton on Friday offering three debates, triple the number he agreed to in the run-up to the GOP convention.
Throckmorton said he will accept all three — one next week at the Provo-Orem Chamber of Commerce, one televised by KUED just two days before the June 22 primary and a third on KBYU at a time to be determined.
He also will ask for more, including locally televised debates on KSL, KUTV, KTVX and FOX 13 and a standing offer from CNN to debate about immigration on Lou Dobbs' show.
Hunter said Cannon, who clearly enjoyed the only debate with Throckmorton and Greg Hawkins before the convention, where Hawkins was eliminated, would try to fit in additional debates.
"He really does enjoy debates," Hunter said. "The challenge we have is scheduling. With the convention and primary being relatively early, Congress is in full swing. It's very difficult to schedule things with reliability."
The Provo-Orem Chamber of Commerce debate is scheduled during the only congressional break between now and the primary.
Throckmorton, who hopes to raise $150,000, expects Cannon to outspend him but promises a vigorous volunteer-driven campaign.
"We'll have one of the best grassroots campaigns Utah has seen in quite awhile," he said. "In about a week and a half, we'll have a volunteer base of about 500 people out going door-to-door."
He also hopes the high-profile race for governor will generate a high turnout for the primary because he believes it would help him more than Cannon.
The poll shows Cannon leading Babka 61 percent to 19 percent if the general election, which is still six months away, were held today. Throckmorton drew 41 percent to Babka's 21 percent, with 32 percent undecided.
Babka's campaign manager said the Democrat expected to be trailing the two Republicans at this point.
"We just kicked off the campaign, and we're excited to watch those numbers improve as the campaign moves forward," Ann Ober said. "We hope as his name recognition improves, we'll see an improvement in those numbers. He won a lot of votes against an incumbent two years ago. That's why the party was so excited about him."
She expects the Republican primary will help Babka, who has worked in the Salt Lake County Sheriff's Office and won nearly 45 percent of the vote as the Democratic nominee for Salt Lake County sheriff in 2002.
"I think this gives us a chance to get our feet under us and get the campaign rolling while Chris and Matt are focused on their primary," Ober said.
Hunter cautioned Republicans against assuming a win over Babka in November.
"He ran a strong campaign in Salt Lake County, so he cannot be dismissed by Republicans," Hunter said. "At this point, Congressman Cannon is in a much stronger position than a challenger would be. Republicans cannot take it for granted. He's a guy who has several tens of thousands of votes in his life."
E-mail: twalch@desnews.com