With Utah in its sixth year of drought, the incredibly shrinking Great Salt Lake doesn't appear so "great" anymore.
Fremont and Gunnison are the only two true islands left in the lake, noted Wallace Gwynn, a geologist with the Utah Geological Survey. The lake's other "islands" are now all hooked to the mainland.
The lake surface's current elevation of 4,196.3 feet above sea level is about a foot lower than last year at this time and the lowest it's been since 1970.
And Gwynn predicts the Great Salt Lake's water level is likely to also be about a foot lower this fall than it was in the autumn of 2003. The lake is usually lowest each calendar year in the early fall.
If the lake does drop as anticipated to 4,194 feet this fall, that will be its lowest level since 1967. The lake's lowest-ever level was recorded in 1963 — 4,191.3 feet above sea level.
At its historic peak of 4,211.6 feet in 1987, the lake's waters covered 3,300 square miles. Today it only encompasses some 1,200 square miles and in 1963, it covered only 950 square miles.
On the positive side, less lake can equal reduced erosion along the 7.5-mile causeway to Antelope Island and also means less upkeep for I-80 toward Wendover. It also means the Great Salt Lake pumps on the west shores remain idle and no one gets flooded.
On the negative side, it could make it more difficult to control mosquitoes.
Gary Hatch of the Davis Mosquito Abatement District said a shrinking Great Salt Lake ultimately means more areas around the lake that make ideal hatching sites that will need to be sprayed to control mosquitoes.
"It makes our job a little more interesting," he said. "It exposes more marsh."
Ron Taylor, Antelope Island State Park manager, said shallow lake water is affecting the park's marina the most. Large boats won't be able to use the marina this year. The marina currently has less than 4 feet of water, essentially closing it to everything except small power boats, kayaks, canoes and small sailboats, he said.
Swimmers and waders will have to walk a little farther to reach the water at Antelope's beaches again this year. But Taylor said the wildlife and vegetation look in good shape. Some 270,000 people visited the island last year.
Bird sanctuaries, such as Egg Island, are now easily accessible by wading, but Taylor said the park strives to educate visitors to stay away from these sensitive locations.
"It wasn't a problem last year," he said.
Christopher Quick, park manager for the Great Salt Lake State Marina on the south shore, said he's only had to eliminate the largest of boats so far.
"We have 6 to 6 1/2 feet of water in the marina now," he said.
That makes most 35-foot and larger boats unable to use the marina, because generally the longer the length, the deeper the keel. If the lake does drop an extra foot this year, that will mean 25-foot and larger boats won't be able to launch from the marina.
Quick stressed there are plenty of sailing opportunities on the open lake, despite the low levels.
Steve Ingram, owner of Salt Island Adventures, which offers regular boat cruises on the Great Salt Lake, doesn't foresee any problems with his business this year because of the low lake levels.
He said misconceptions and negative publicity about the lake are the nemesis of his business.
"I've seen predictions come and go," he said of his decades of boating experience on the lake, "It all seems to be the flip of a coin."
Gwynn said the shrinking lake could create an even greater dust bowl in the southern portion of Farmington Bay than it did last year.
Depending on wind direction, it is also possible that a smaller lake could produce more of a "lake stink" problem for Davis County communities. "That smell could give us a problem," Gwynn said.
Salinity in the north arm is likely to remain at about 26 percent. However, Gwynn said the south arm salinity level could increase from the 15-16 percent range to 16-17 percent, because less water becomes more concentrated with salt.
He doesn't think that will affect the lake's brine shrimp population negatively. But the lower water level will mean that lake industries that extract minerals, may have to deepen their intake canals.
The Audubon Society has said in the past that a smaller lake won't adversely affect shorebirds, but fewer freshwater marshes around the lake because of the drought is a related hindrance.
"There's no end in sight," Gwynn said of the shrinking lake. While it won't totally disappear — as some scientific experts predicted in both the 19th and 20th centuries when it was in a downturn — the question of when a wet cycle will come along to refill it isn't on any horizon yet.
E-mail: lynn@desnews.com