BAGHDAD, Iraq — Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the nation's most powerful Shiite Muslim leader, is growing increasingly concerned that nationwide elections could be delayed, his aides said, and has even threatened to withdraw his support for the elections unless changes are made to increase the representation of Shiites, according to one source close to him.
Aides to al-Sistani contacted Lakhdar Brahimi, the former Algerian foreign minister who brokered the agreement to hold the elections, to express concern that the elections would be delayed, according to Hamid Khaffaf, one of al-Sistani's top aides. Another source close to the negotiations said that al-Sistani had asked Brahimi to return to Iraq to try to address his concerns.
According to people with knowledge of the talks, al-Sistani is concerned that the nascent democratic process in Iraq is falling under the control of a handful of the largest political parties, which cooperated with the U.S. occupation and are comprised largely of exiles. In particular, these sources say, al-Sistani is worried about discussions now under way among those parties to form a single ticket for the January elections, thus limiting the choices of voters and smothering smaller political parties.
Al-Sistani, who earlier this year sent tens of thousands of Iraqis into the streets to demand early elections, is said to be worried that a so-called "consensus list" of candidates being discussed among the larger political parties would artificially limit the power of the Shiites, who form a majority in the country. Under an agreement reached among exile groups in the early 1990s, the Shiites were said to comprise about 55 percent of the population. Al-Sistani, the sources say, believes that the Shiite population has swelled since then and therefore would be underrepresented on any single list based on a 55 percent figure.
Al-Sistani also expressed concerns that the Iraqi government, possibly under U.S. pressure, would postpone the elections under the pretext that the anarchical conditions that prevail over much of the country would make the results illegitimate, the sources said.
According to an Iraqi close to al-Sistani who spoke at length with him last weekend, the ayatollah is so upset about the prospect that the Shiites might be underrepresented that he is prepared to withdraw his support for the elections if his concerns are not addressed. It is unclear, however, what specific demands he has made.
"If he sees that what this is leading to is unfair and unfree elections, then he will not take part in it," the Iraqi said. "He will declare the elections to be illegitimate."
The activity by al-Sistani represents a reassertion of his efforts to ensure that the country's long-suppressed Shiites translate their majority status into political power. Since the Americans toppled Saddam Hussein, al-Sistani has largely stayed away from engaging in the minutiae of partisan politics, but he has aggressively pushed the Americans, the United Nations and the Iraqi government to hold democratic elections as soon as possible.