PROVO — China has many of the needed attributes to become a world superpower, but several challenges may prevent it from reaching that status, author Ross Terrill said during an address Wednesday at Brigham Young University.
"China may not be as overwhelmingly destined for great power as those who fear it or from afar admire it," he said.
Terrill, a research associate at Harvard's Fairbank Center for East Asian Research, is an expert on Chinese affairs. His most recent book, "The New Chinese Empire," was selected as the book of the semester for the David M. Kennedy Center for International Studies at BYU.
Terrill credited China's exploding population and booming economy — growing at 8 percent per year — for pushing the country into a major role in international relations. "It's extensive," he said. "China is everywhere on the map."
But Terrill also pointed out that there are other issues China will always face.
For one, it is surrounded by 14 nations and will always have to devote large amounts of energy to protecting its borders and maintaining relations with neighbors.
The dependence of the People's Republic of China on international trade, particularly with the United States, which buys one-fourth of all Chinese exports, may temper any imperialistic desires.
Ultimately, Terrill said, China's ability to assume a dominant role in the world will depend on the ability of its communist regime to endure and the world's willingness to let China assume such a role.
Neither condition looks promising, he said.
"A rising power's goals are not always achieved," Terrill said. "In modern times, authoritarian states in particular have mostly failed in achieving their goals."
Also, Terrill said, neither the United States nor China should be concerned with China overtaking the role as the world's superpower.
Instead, both sides should recognize their mutual dependence and forge mutually beneficial relations.
"I don't think the United States (is) in competition with China," Terrill said. "The task is to look ahead to integration. Old-style balance-of-power politics are not the answer."
Cory Leonard, assistant director at the David M. Kennedy Center, said: "China is important, in many ways, especially since our attention is in the Middle East right now. We don't think about these topics and these issues as much as maybe we should."
Local businessman Warren Osborn has worked with China for years. His company, Seastone, has factories in China that manufacture items for export, and attended the symposium for greater insight into China.
"(The presentation) really added a lot of support to the business theories and strategies that we have right now," he said. "It gives me a lot more confidence in some of the strategic decisions we're making."
E-mail: jtwitchell@desnews.com