WASHINGTON — Dire predictions of a super-flu that could kill millions around the globe are making headlines at an awkward time: Regular flu season is just about to start. The challenge is to avoid panicking people while helping them prepare for the grim possibility of a pandemic.
Some questions and answers to help stem confusion:
Question: How is a pandemic different from regular winter flu?
Answer: A pandemic occurs when a strain of the influenza virus emerges that is very different from the usual flu strains that circulate every winter. Even healthy people won't have any residual immunity. There were three pandemics in the last century.
Question: Will a pandemic strike this winter?
Answer: Most experts say it's not likely, but there's no way to tell.
Question: Will the bird flu cause the next pandemic?
Answer: Possibly, but only if it evolves so that it can start spreading easily from person to person. This H5N1 strain has killed at least 62 people in Asia; most were infected by close contact with sick birds or their droppings. This bird flu has not been found in people or birds in this country.
Question: How could it evolve?
Answer: The most likely scenario is that someone infected with a human flu virus catches the bird flu at the same time, so the two viruses mix their genes and form a hybrid that spreads. The chances of human contact increase with more infected bird species, as H5N1 spreads beyond Asia and into Europe.
Question: Should I put off travel to countries where bird flu has struck?
Answer: Health authorities say travel is fine, but avoid contact with live animal markets and poultry farms.
Question: Will a flu shot protect me from the bird flu?
Answer: No.
Question: Then why should I get vaccinated this winter?
Answer: Every year, seasonal flu kills 36,000 Americans. Even if you're healthy and likely to recover, regular winter flu can put you in bed for a week.
Question: When will bird-flu vaccine be available?
Answer: Not until and unless bird flu sparks a pandemic. Only then would scientists know exactly what strain a vaccine needs to fight; it still would take months to brew.
Question: Should I stockpile the anti-flu drug Tamiflu?
Answer: No. You won't be able to tell if early symptoms are the flu or some other virus. Using the drug unnecessarily wastes it and can prompt development of Tamiflu-resistant strains. Private hoarding also hinders hospitals' ability to get Tamiflu for patients who really need it, this winter and if a pandemic strikes.
Question: How is the government preparing for a pandemic?
Answer: Stockpiling Tamiflu, other drugs and supplies, and some experimental H5N1 vaccine to buy time if a similar strain sparks a pandemic. Improving vaccine manufacturing so that one day, vaccine to match whatever super-flu emerges could be produced quickly. Encouraging communities to plan how food shipments, electricity, security and other needs would be taken care of during a pandemic's chaos.
Question: How will I know when a pandemic begins?
Answer: The World Health Organization, with help from influenza specialists in the U.S. and elsewhere, is closely monitoring flu infections around the globe and will announce when a potential pandemic strain emerges.
Question: During a pandemic, how will I know what kind of flu I have?
Answer: It will take a doctor's test.
Question: How can I protect myself during a pandemic?
Answer: Like in any flu season, common-sense hygiene is key. Wash your hands a lot — chances are somebody just sneezed into his hand and then touched the same doorknob you did. Cover coughs and sneezes so you don't spread germs. Sneeze into a tissue or your sleeve; if you use your hands, wash them immediately.
Question: During the SARS outbreak, I saw people in affected countries wearing paper masks. Should I stockpile those?
Answer: There's no need — unlike with Tamiflu, masks aren't in short supply or hard to make. During a pandemic, the sick will be told to wear so-called surgical or procedure masks, as will doctors and others caring for them.
Question: If I suffer symptoms during a pandemic, what should I do?
Answer: Stay home from work or school. Call your doctor for instructions unless it's an emergency, to avoid exposing others in the waiting room.
Question: Will I be quarantined?
Answer: The stereotype of forced quarantine isn't likely. After all, flu can spread a day before symptoms appear. But the sick would be isolated — cared for in separate rooms — to limit spread. Travel restrictions on initially affected countries would be imposed, and people known to be exposed to infection might be asked to stay home for five days or so to watch for symptoms.
Question: Is there anything I should be doing now?
Answer: Just stay informed. Education is the best defense.