With two weeks to go in the regular season and more than half the Mountain West Conference football teams fighting for postseason potential, this much is certain:
Having clinched the conference title, TCU is the only team right now guaranteed a winning season and accompanying bowl eligibility.
Three teams — Air Force, San Diego State and UNLV — are assured losing records and no postseason opportunity.
The Mountain West has three guaranteed bowl berths (provided the conference has that many bowl-eligible teams): the Las Vegas Bowl, the Emerald Bowl and the Poinsettia Bowl.
Meanwhile, this much remains uncertain in MWC football:
The Mountain West's five other teams — BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — each have a chance to reach the magic 6-5 overall record that qualifies a team for bowl consideration. However, four of the five aforementioned could end up with no better than a 5-6 losing record and see its bowl hopes dashed. (Either BYU or Utah is assured of six wins because they play each other.)
The nine-member Mountain West could qualify as many as six bowl-eligible teams — or have as few as only two.
The MWC could send eligible teams to other bowls that may have openings, such as at-large berths or a slot where another league couldn't qualify enough bowl-eligible teams.
So, before the pigskin prognosticators start pointing Mountain West programs to specific postseason bowls over the next few days, teams first have to get qualified.
Utah, BYU, CSU and New Mexico need just one victory in the next two weeks to clinch the six-win mark and become bowl eligible; Wyoming must win both of its two remaining games.
While the greatest odds have the Mountain West finishing with three to five bowl-eligible teams, there is a chance for four of the five aforementioned to join TCU as postseason contenders.
Here's one scenario: Wyoming must win its two final games to reach 6-5, Utah beats New Mexico Saturday but loses to BYU in the regular-season finale to finish 6-5, New Mexico follows its loss Saturday at Utah with a loss at home to Air Force the following week to end at 5-6, BYU's loss Saturday at Wyoming and win against Utah is good for the Cougars' 6-5 mark, and CSU wins at least one of its last two to reach or surpass the six-victory mark.
That's a total of six bowl-eligible teams out of the nine-member Mountain West, quite a different scenario from past seasons when the league has barely scraped by to fill its bowl slots.
Conversely, there is also a chance the conference could end up with just two bowl-bound teams: TCU and Utah. That happens if Utah wins out, BYU and CSU both drop their last two games, Wyoming follows its victory over BYU with a loss at SDSU, and New Mexico follows its loss in Salt Lake City with home defeat. That gives Utah a 7-4 overall record and the other four all at 5-6.
Here's a quick rundown at each of the teams still with bowl hopes:
BYU: The 5-4 Cougars need to win at least one of their last two games — a tough road match Saturday at Wyoming or the season-finale against rival Utah.
COLORADO STATE: Also at 5-4, the Rams seem to have the easiest route to qualify since they play a pair of since-eliminated opponents — Saturday against San Diego State and next week at UNLV.
NEW MEXICO: The 5-4 Lobos have bowl-hopeful peer Utah this Saturday in Salt Lake City, followed by the season-ending home game against Air Force.
UTAH: Like the Cougars, the Utes stand at 5-4 and have two games remaining against teams also fighting for their postseason lives — Saturday at home against New Mexico and next week at BYU.
WYOMING: The 4-5 Cowboys are the closest to elimination, needing to couple a home victory against BYU this weekend with a season-finale win at San Diego State.
MWC overall standings
Team Record
TCU 9-1
BYU 5-4
Colorado State 5-4
New Mexico 5-4
Utah 5-4
Wyoming 4-5
San Diego State 3-6
Air Force 3-7
UNLV 2-7
Saturday's games
BYU at Wyoming
New Mexico at Utah
San Diego St. at CSU
UNLV at TCU
Nov. 19 games
Colorado State at UNLV
Air Force at New Mexico
Utah at BYU
Wyoming at San Diego St.
Note: SDSU finishes its season Dec. 3 at Hawaii
MWC-aligned bowl
Bowl Site Date Opponent
Las Vegas Las Vegas Dec. 22 Pac-10
Poinsettia San Diego Dec. 22 At-large
Emerald San Francisco Dec. 29 Pac-10
E-mail: taylor@desnews.com