Pignanelli: "The good news is that the Democrats don't have a plan to benefit from our blunders; the bad news is that they may not need one," quipped a seasoned GOP insider to me last week. The expression reflects a real fear among Republicans that Democrats may recapture Congress in November — and begs a similar question about Utah politics.
The last mid-second-term election during a Republican administration (1986) was a fertile year for Democrats. Although Republicans maintained affection for their beloved Ronald Reagan, fatigue plagued the GOP, and they lost the U.S. Senate and House seats. That year, Utah Democrats doubled their numbers in the Legislature (including seats in Utah and Davis County), elected Wayne Owens to Congress and garnered many county commission slots. This accomplishment was especially significant because the popular U.S. Sen. Jake Garn topped the ticket and Democratic candidates had to slug it out with no help from a standard-bearer.
Although he faces a tough contest against Orrin Hatch, challenger Pete Ashdown strengthens the Democrat's 2006 ticket with his solid profile — successful high-tech businessman and a fresh face in politics. Of course, every Democrat is blessed with the presence of the state's most popular politician, congressman Jim Matheson — who will soon be reminding Utahns why they like him.
Americans are clearly holding the GOP responsible for the mess in Washington: outrageous budget deficits, questionable outcomes in Iraq, bribing of officials, incompetence with disaster relief and immigration reform legislation that has twisted into an insult to millions of hard-working Latinos. A majority of Utahns still support President Bush, but even they admit to his problems and concede he is no Reagan. Republicans are deflated and frustrated. Indeed, there is no Bill Clinton or John Kerry to stoke their fires for the trip to the voting booth. For decades, Republicans have successfully claimed the moral high ground in comparing themselves to Democrats. In light of the massive ethical problems in Washington, and the occasional misstep in Utah, this is an advantage they no longer possess.
All these elements will provide a real difference in Utah's upcoming general election.
Granted, Democrats have not articulated a demonstrable alternative or why they are the instruments of reform. But America's majority party continually squanders its leadership opportunities to effectuate needed changes. The public is thirsting for action. Thus, the Democrats' heretofore questionable strategy of lying low and keeping out of trouble just may be the key to success this year.
Webb: As Frank suggests, this is the Democrats' year. Everything is going their way. You couldn't write a better script for a big, fat Democratic victory in November. The Republicans have botched things up badly enough on the national level to hand Congress over to the Dems on a silver platter.
And if the Democrats can truly "nationalize" this election, turn it into a referendum on Republican goofups in Washington, they should make significant inroads at state and local levels, even in Utah.
So here's my prediction: They won't do it. On the Utah level, at least, they will manage to seize defeat from the jaws of victory.
And perhaps I'm in denial, but I don't think even on a national level the Dems are going to turn this into a rout, as by all rights they should.
National polls show that overall approval ratings of Democrats and Republicans in Congress are even — they both stink. More American voters consider themselves to be conservatives than liberals. The only Democrats who are really motivated and energized this year are our friends on the Angry Left, led by Howard Dean, Michael Moore, George Soros and far-left bloggers.
They are united in their undying hatred of George Bush, but they are so strident and goofy that they actually hurt their party's election chances. By one count, they have engaged in 17 individual elections since 2004 and have lost every one of them. The more they are the face of the Democratic Party, the better for Republicans.
The Democrats lack an inspiring leader and lack a coherent vision and agenda. A lot of mainstream voters may be disgusted enough with politics in general that they will simply stay home in November, dashing the Democrats' dream of nationalizing the election.
The Republicans have a lot riding on this election, but so do the Democrats. If the Dems can't win big this year, then they really are relegated to minority-party status for the foreseeable future.
In Utah, it's going to be business as usual with minor gains and losses on either side.
I'm not minimizing the GOP problems. While I fully support the president's foreign policies, including the war in Iraq, he has communicated poorly, and I doubt he can recover. Most regrettably, the Republicans have somehow become the party of big government in Washington, attempting an expensive federal solution for every problem in existence and, predictably, failing.
I'm looking for a candidate with great communications skills who will tell Americans the truth — the federal government can't and isn't going to solve all your problems. Give the responsibility, funding and resources back to the 50 laboratories of democracy.
Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. A former candidate for Salt Lake mayor, he served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. Pignanelli's spouse, D'Arcy Dixon Pignanelli, is executive director of the state Department of Administrative Services in the Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. administration. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.