If you're looking for an easier way to make money in stocks, how about a company that can persuade customers to fork over, say, $150, $250, $350 or more for a pair of jeans?
That would be True Religion Apparel, whose stock (symbol TRLG) has soared 30-fold in the past 18 months. Its pants, which bear an emblem of a smiling Buddha playing a guitar, are popular with celebrities, including Angelina Jolie, Jennifer Lopez and Bruce Willis.
True Religion is the brainchild of Jeff Lubell, a brash 50-year-old Brooklyn native, who, together with his wife, Kym, designs most of the clothing. Lubell says that True Religion makes almost all of its clothing in the United States. Domestic apparel manufacturing, which is rare nowadays, allows the Los Angeles-based company to react faster to fashion trends. "You're only as good as your next design," says Lubell.
A growing number of consumers think True Religion's jeans are plenty good. Analysts estimate that the company generated $102 million in sales in 2005, up from $28 million in 2004. Profits have surged, too, from $4.3 million, or 20 cents a share, in 2004 to an estimated 90 cents a share last year.
The stock traded at 65 cents a share in July 2004 and fetched $19 in mid-March. That means it's selling for about 16 times the $1.25 per share that analysts, on average, expect the company to earn in 2006, according to Thomson First Call. That's relatively low for a company that's expected to grow so rapidly.
True Religion fans count on the company growing into much more than a denim maker. Analyst Eric Beder of Brean Murray Carret & Co. predicts that True Religion will become "a true lifestyle brand," like Guess. Beder has a "strong buy" recommendation on the stock. But Don Hodges, co-manager of Hodges fund, which holds a small amount of the stock, cautions that riding clothing trends can rip you asunder.
"It's always a question of whether they have a hot item that will fade out or whether they will become a bigger company with a broad product line," says Hodges. And True Religion faces stiff competition in the premium jeans category from 7 for all mankind and Citizens of Humanity.
In sum, because fads have a way of petering out quickly, tread carefully. You might be better off splurging on the jeans themselves.