PROVO — It came as no surprise when the Mountain West Conference preseason media poll revealed that TCU, BYU and Utah were picked to finish 1-2-3 in the final standings.
That's because the Horned Frogs, Cougars and Utes have emerged as the league's Big Three. And there are no signs, for now, of that changing. Entering 2007, the Big Three boast talent, experience and momentum that put them ahead of the rest of the pack.
BYU and TCU finished the 2006 campaign in the national rankings (No. 16 and No. 22, respectively). The Cougars are riding a 10-game winning streak, the second-longest in the nation (behind Boise State's 13). The Frogs, whose only two losses in '06 came at the hands of the Cougars and Utes, own an eight-game winning streak, which is good for fourth-longest in the country. Utah, meanwhile, is coming off an eight-win season and another bowl victory, the Utes' fifth straight since 2001.
The Big Three plan on simply reloading.
"Can you justify TCU being No. 1? If you look at coach (Gary) Patterson and what he's done over time, regardless of personnel changes, it's a safe bet," said BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall. "It is something I'm trying to do with our program. There was personnel that came and left, yet the program and execution and manner in which they carried themselves and performed was the same. That is what we're looking to become. That would be the case with the (MWC's) top three, with different arguments and circumstances, but basically it's the same."
The Big Three have brought national acclaim to the conference in recent years.
In the past three seasons, each of those teams has taken turns posting a perfect MWC record and claiming an outright championship. Utah went 7-0 in 2004, the year before TCU joined the fold, busted the Bowl Championship Series, drilled Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl and finished with a No. 4 national ranking.
TCU, in its first season in the league, survived a few scares en route to an 8-0 record in 2005. Only an inexplicable loss to archrival SMU kept the Frogs from a BCS bowl game. Still, TCU ended up with a No. 9 national ranking.
Last season, BYU stormed to an 8-0 conference mark. Road defeats to Arizona and Boston College early in the season prevented the Cougars from earning a possible BCS berth.
Since 2005, TCU (14-2), BYU (13-3) and Utah (9-7) own the top overall records in MWC play. None of the other six teams in the league even have a winning record during that span.
So what does 2007 hold? Can one of those three teams go unbeaten again? Or will parity play more of a factor?
Utah quarterback Brian Johnson, who ranked No. 4 nationally in total offense in 2005 before injuring his knee, returns after being sidelined for the 2006 season. TCU will rely on its stingy defense, having surrendered less than 20 points in nine of its 10 victories last season and finished the season ranked No. 1 in the MWC in scoring defense, total defense and rushing defense. And the Cougars are the defending champs.
"How can you not pick those guys one and two — in no particular order?" Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said of TCU and BYU. "A lot of people have those guys flip-flopped. I don't have any disagreement there with what the preseason prognosticators are coming up with this time."
Two years ago, TCU narrowly defeated Utah and BYU early in the season — on controversial, last-second plays — and ended up running the table in conference play. In fact, the Frogs' win over the Utes in Fort Worth, in their MWC debut, snapped Utah's 18-game winning streak.
Last season, the Cougars surprised the Frogs in Fort Worth, 31-17, and rolled through the rest of the MWC, until they met Utah, where BYU won in dramatic fashion on the final play of the game on a touchdown pass from John Beck to Jonny Harline.
In 2007, it might take a while to figure out who's in control of the conference race. Utah and TCU tangle on Oct. 18 in Fort Worth; BYU faces TCU on Nov. 8 and Utah on Nov. 24, both at home.
Once again, it looks like a three-way collision course for the MWC championship.
E-mail: jeffc@desnews.com