2-seamed debate
LONG-TERM PROBLEM?
The Cubs need Carlos Zambrano to be many things — an ace, a workhorse, a leader, a grown-up. More than anything, they need him to be an exception.
Smart money says, and at least one highly placed Major League Baseball official agrees, the Cubs would have been better off letting Zambrano walk than giving him a five-year contract at a record salary level for a starting pitcher.
"These long-term contracts are brutal, absolutely brutal," the official said. "We talk about that all the time, and teams keep doing it. I don't understand ... If you have the benefit of history, wouldn't you study that history before you make moves?"
The MLB official knows all the relevant names: Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle, Darren Dreifort, Wilson Alvarez, Alex Fernandez, Chan Ho Park, Carl Pavano, Ben Sheets, Pedro Martinez, Bartolo Colon.
Because of injury, a drop in performance or both, the contracts for those players and others turned into albatrosses for their teams. Those deals, along with ones that did work out, provide a map for what the Cubs can expect in the five years for which they will pay Zambrano $91.5 million.
In at least one year, probably two, Zambrano will make fewer than 25 starts, perhaps none at all. That's the reality about injuries and pitchers with long-term contracts.
In the 10 seasons spanning 1997 through 2006, 24 pitchers signed and completed contracts of at least four years as free agents or prospective free agents. They combined to experience 38 diminished or lost seasons of a total of 107 — more than one down year for every two good ones.
Only nine of the 24 could be judged as representing good deals for the signing teams.
Nineteen teams currently have at least one contract of four-plus years that came through free agency or was done to keep a pitcher off the free-agent market. Zambrano became the 29th of those. The value of those contracts is $1.56 billion — an average of $53.7 million.
"They've been such a disaster," the MLB official said. "When you find out why teams keep doing this, can you tell me? We have the data. If anybody thinks the Zambrano deal is a slam dunk for the Cubs, they're wrong."
If the Cubs didn't pay Zambrano, of course, somebody else would have. — Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune
Top 10
TEAM Last week
1. Boston Red Sox 1
Youkilis walking, but not hitting
2. Los Angeles Angels 2
Series at Seattle starts Monday
3. New York Mets 4
Maine — 8.68 ERA this month
4. New York Yankees 3
Last home series vs. BoSox this week
5. Seattle Mariners 6
Ibanez — 9 HRs, .397 avg. in August
6. Arizona Diamondbacks 5
Lost first series since mid-July
7. Cleveland Indians 8
Westbrook — 1.50 ERA in last 5
8. San Diego Padres —
Scored 22 runs in 3 games vs. Mets
9. Chicago Cubs —
Key series ahead — vs. Milwaukee
10. Detroit Tigers 7
Worst team ERA in majors recently
Dropped out: Phillies, Braves
Fantasy tip
RISING — Garret Anderson, OF, Angels: Anderson, 35, turned back the clock Tuesday with 2 HRs and 10 RBIs against the Yankees. Batting cleanup for the Halos right behind Vladimir Guerrero, Anderson will get plenty of RBI opportunities down the stretch.
RISING — Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Rangers: The top prospect of the five guys Atlanta sent to Texas in the Mark Teixeira deal, the 22-year old Saltalamacchia struggled at the plate for most of his first month as a Ranger. But in six games last week, he caught fire with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs.
MONITOR — David Wells, SP, Dodgers: Released by San Diego two weeks ago, Wells had a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 12 starts at home for the Padres compared to a 7.99 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in 10 starts on the road. Keep an eye on which David Wells shows up tonight when he makes his Dodgers debut. — J.G. Askar