Guess which city has Utah's worst rates per resident for rape, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and car theft. It also has the second-worst rate for violent robberies and third-worst for homicides. In short, it has the highest overall crime rate in the state.
It is not Salt Lake City or West Valley City. They are the state's largest cities and indeed have the highest numbers of crimes — which is why they tend to dominate crime headlines.
But when crime rates per resident are figured — to help compare apples to apples among jurisdictions of different population sizes — the place suffering those worst rates is industrial South Salt Lake, population 22,000.
Some other suburban or rural places that jump up high on some per-resident crime-rate lists that may be surprising include Midvale, Murray, St. George and American Fork.
On the other hand, cities that might be expected on a list of the worst crime rates escape such classification.
For example, Provo — the state's third largest city — has comparatively low crime rates and does not appear on any of the usual "worst" lists. Another urban area has the state's lowest violent crime rate: North Ogden. And another has its lowest property crime rate: Farmington.
The Deseret Morning News computed average annual crime rates for 106 communities based on data the communities reported to the state between 2002 and 2006. Such multiple-year averages make it less likely for one especially bad (or good) year to unduly skew data.
Results show that overall rates on the urban Wasatch Front are 70 percent higher than the rest of the state. And they show where the likelihood per resident of some types of crime is highest or lowest.
Comparing per-resident rates is not without controversy. Places ranking the worst, such as South Salt Lake, often argue that they have much higher "daytime populations" than their official "nighttime" resident population because of visitors working or traveling through their cities. So they say dividing the number of crimes by their smaller nighttime population makes rates seem worse.
Of note, most comparisons made by the Deseret Morning News also are among areas with at least 10,000 residents. That is done because even a single crime in some very small cities can create rates that appear as if a huge crime wave hit there when divided by a tiny population.
And be aware that comparisons are made only at the level of police jurisdiction, or city-to-city, not among areas within them.
So, for example, the Millard County Sheriff's Office has the highest overall homicide rate per resident in the state, and Salt Lake City is No. 2. But no one would argue that some rough areas within Salt Lake City are themselves likely far more dangerous than, say, the center of Millard's county seat in Fillmore.
South Salt Lake
South Salt Lake, a city with a relatively small population but a big industrial area, suffers the highest per-person crime rates — by far — in many categories.
In the period analyzed, the city had an average annual rate of 86 violent crimes per 10,000 residents.
That is three times higher than the state average — and even 17 percent higher than second-place Salt Lake City, and 46 percent higher than third-place Ogden.
For crimes against property, South Salt Lake had an average annual rate of 989 crimes per 10,000 residents.
That was nearly four times higher than the state average. It was also 9 percent higher than second-place Salt Lake City and 15 percent higher than third-place Murray.
Why are its crime rates so high?
City officials say part of it has to do with location and a daytime population that more than triples the city's population. Police contend the statistics based on its nighttime population are misleading.
"We have been battling this issue forever," said South Salt Lake Police Capt. Tracy Tingey. "They only base (the statistics) on residents, not what your actual population is at different times. We have a strange makeup for a city."
Furthermore, Chief Chris Snyder said comparing South Salt Lake with rural cities of similar populations is like comparing apples to oranges. "How do you even put us in the same category of St. George or Payson? Let's be realistic," he said.
But that may also be the point. Robert C. Wadman, a criminal justice professor at Weber State University and a former police chief of four cities nationwide, including Orem, said crime rates usually follow local rates of other factors related to crime, such as poverty, broken homes and joblessness. Some areas have more of that than others, and more crime, which comparisons show.
Snyder said the makeup of South Salt Lake — located in the heart of Salt Lake County — is unique.
It has an estimated 22,000 "nighttime" residents, but its population during the day averages nearly 70,000 people, Snyder said.
On top of that, there are three TRAX stations in South Salt Lake, and both I-80 and I-15 have offramps into the city. When the number of people who simply pass through the city each day are added to those who work and live there, about 100,000 people a day pass through the city, Snyder estimated.
Snyder noted South Salt Lake also has a lot of people compacted into a very small area. It has many low-income housing and rental units. Because of that, he said it is sometimes hard to start neighborhood- and business-watch programs with community members who are always moving. The city also has a large industrial area, with some businesses operating 24/7.
"A lot of people spend a considerable amount of time here but may not live here," Snyder said.
The city police department has a total of 58 sworn officers to keep track of those 70,000 people during the day. When broken down into shifts and positions, there are just 24 officers on the street, Tingey said.
On the positive side, Snyder points to how the crime rate for the city has dropped each year since peaking in 2004.
"We look at what we did the year previously. We don't compare our crime rate to other cities," he said. "We look at what has been done to improve our own city," and, Snyder said, it is improving
No. 2 in crime
Salt Lake City, which ranked second in the average crime rate for both violent and property crimes, is another place where the police department knows all about an extremely large daytime population.
"Due to us being the capital of Utah, people come downtown to work, shop, sporting events, cultural events ... our service population is drastically different than our residential population," said Salt Lake City police detective Jeff Bedard.
Salt Lake City's current population is about 181,000. But a 2005 U.S. Census report estimated Salt Lake City's daytime population at 313,000 people. In cities of at least 100,000 people, only Irvine, Calif., sees a greater proportion of daytime swell in its population than Salt Lake City.
The Salt Lake City Police Department has a little more than 400 staff members.
Although Salt Lake City ranks high in its crimes per resident, violent crime in the city was down 3.6 percent over the past 10 years, Bedard said.
Low crime rates
The extreme opposite of South Salt Lake is tiny Leeds, population 613, between
Cedar City and St. George. It has almost no crime.
In fact, between 2003 and 2005, it reported only a single crime to the state, a larceny, among the eight categories of crime tracked nationally by the FBI. So, among all law enforcement agencies, it had the lowest crime rates.
"I'm shocked," Leeds Police Chief Dave Krouse said upon hearing the statistics. "I'm blown away with one crime statistic."
Krouse's surprise isn't because he thinks the statistics are terribly wrong. He just didn't realize they were THAT low. Although Leeds is still a town where residents keep the doors to their homes and cars unlocked at night, Krouse admitted he'd be willing to bet the town's crime rate isn't quite as low as the statistics suggest.
First off all, the town has only a part-time police force, including the chief and four part-time officers. The rest of the time the city is patrolled by the Washington County Sheriff's Office. So, to avoid dual reporting, sometimes crime statistics for Leeds are included in the sheriff's office's year-end reports but not the town's, Krouse said.
In addition, most residents in Leeds are elderly or people whose families have lived in the town for generations, he said.
"They've learned to deal with problems amongst themselves," he said. "They're used to handling things on their own."
The population of Leeds hasn't grown much over the years, being able to avoid many of the undesirable influences from the outside world. And residents are "generally concerned for the well-being of each other," Krouse said.
Each of the town's officers fills out on average one police report per month, he said. So in that respect, Krouse said, the state crime statistics could be accurate. "Most of the calls we go to are citizen assists or barking dog complaints. We just don't have that many serious crimes," Krouse said.
Among cities with more than 10,000 residents, North Ogden has the lowest rate of violent crime (3.5 per year on average per 10,000 residents). Farmington has the lowest rate of property crimes (155 per 10,000 residents).
"Wow. That's pretty neat" was the reaction from North Ogden Police Chief Polo Afuvai, who was unaware of his city's ranking.
Both North Ogden and Farmington are on the urban Wasatch Front but have lower crime rates than many much-smaller rural towns. Both, in general, credit strong Neighborhood Watch programs and citizens looking out for each other, providing law enforcement with additional sets of eyes and ears.
Farmington Police Chief Wayne Hansen also credited the high visibility of his officers walking the streets as a deterrent to criminals. The city has 12 full-time officers to watch over its estimated 18,000 residents.
"A lot of people are really concerned about their safety and well-being. They call and report things to us," Afuvai said. "We don't have a lot of shootings. People are really watching out for each other for the most part. We haven't had a homicide for a long time. I can't remember the last time we had one. It's been quite awhile."
North Ogden has 16 officers watching over its city of about 16,000.
Best and worst 10s
A few surprises can be found among other cities that made (or escaped) the lists of Worst 10 and Best 10 rankings.
For example, Provo is the state's third-largest city, population 109,000, a university town and a regional business center. But it managed to avoid the Worst 10 list.
For violent crimes, it ranked 20th highest out of 49 agencies with 10,000 or more people (14.3 per 10,000, or about half the state average). For property crimes, it ranked 28th (297 per 10,000, about a third lower than the state average).
Again, Provo Police Capt. Cliff Argyle credited a strong working relationship between the police department and the city's residents and businesses.
"Our citizens are very proactive in our city and don't hesitate to call the police department," he said. "We may be a large city in numbers, but people here still feel like it's a small community."
As with other cities with lower crime rates, Argyle said the combination of a visible police presence on the streets and the community providing extra sets of eyes and ears have been a key to Provo's success.
"If (criminals) do come here, they're going to be noticed," he said.
Others among the state's largest cities that managed to escape the Worst 10 list included Sandy (population 90,000), Orem (population 89,000) and Layton (61,000).
Meanwhile, some smaller cities, besides South Salt Lake, ended up on the Worst 10 lists. For example, appearing on such lists for both violent crimes and property crimes were Midvale (population 25,000) and Murray (population 42,000).
Other smaller communities on the Worst 10 list for violent crime included St. George (population 48,000) and Tooele (population 27,000). Among the Worst 10 for property crime was relatively small American Fork (population 22,000).
Meanwhile, some larger or urban areas also made the Best 10 lists. The Best 10 for violent crime included Wasatch Front police agencies in Pleasant Grove/Lindon, Spanish Fork, Clinton, Alpine/Highland and Centerville.
The Best 10 for property crimes included such Wasatch Front agencies as the Utah County Sheriff's Office, Clinton police, the Davis County Sheriff's Office and Syracuse police.
Urban vs. rural
It may not be much of a surprise, but the overall crime rate along the urban Wasatch Front is much higher than in the rest of the state.
For violent crimes, the average annual rate along the Wasatch Front is 27 per 10,000 residents, compared to just 17 in rural areas. That is 60 percent higher in urban areas.
For property crimes, the Wasatch Front has a rate of 453 per 10,000, compared to just 266 in the rest of the state. That is 70 percent higher along the Wasatch Front.
Why? Frank Budd, a longtime criminal justice professor at Weber State University who is also executive director of the Utah Chiefs of Police Association, says that basically more people living closer together brings more crime.
"When people come to Utah, they tend to be attracted to the Wasatch Front communities," he said. "When people associate more closely with one another, there is more opportunity and more impetus for crime."
Also, he said that in small towns, people tend to know each other and what they are doing — which can discourage crime and limit opportunities for it. "But there is more anonymity in a large community. That can contribute to (crime).... There is also a greater spectrum of economic status and poverty, which can contribute to it."
Utah vs. USA
Property crime rates are much higher in Utah than the nation overall. But violent crime rates are much lower.
Utah (or the local agencies reporting to it) averaged 26 violent crimes per 10,000 residents between 2002 and 2006.
That was 85 percent lower than the national average for 2002-05. The national average for violent crimes during that time was 48 per 10,000 residents.
Meanwhile, Utah's average annual property crime rate was 20 percent higher than the national average. In Utah it was 424 per 10,000 residents, compared to 354 nationally.
Budd said the high property crime but low violent crime may have to do with Utah's large population of young people.
"If you look at the statistics of who commits crime, it is typically people ages 16 to 22, and then they begin to age out of it. Utah has a lot of young people," he said. "The youthful population is prone to acting spontaneously without giving much thought about the consequences, so you see more crime among that age group. But most grow out of it."
He notes that the state's high rates for property crimes such as burglaries and thefts "are typically the sorts of things that younger people get involved in. Also, we, like every other state, face an increased drug problem. With illegal drug usage, you also see higher crime rates in theft and burglary" to help drug addicts fund their drug use.
Where crime is likely
The data suggest where residents are most likely to see certain types of crime.
For example, a homicide statistically is most likely to occur in Millard County, at least among agencies serving at least 10,000 residents.
It reported five homicides in the five years studied. The county, with only 12,337 residents, had a resulting homicide rate of 8 per 100,000 residents, worse than second-place Salt Lake City (6 per 100,000) and South Salt Lake (5).
Salt Lake City was the place most likely for violent robberies, with 26.2 per 10,000 residents. Clearfield was the place most likely for arson, with 4 per 10,000 residents.
All other major types of crime tracked by the FBI crime index — rape, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and car theft — were most likely to occur in South Salt Lake. The city was also the most likely place for any violent crime or any property crime to occur.
Of course, data also show where crimes are least likely.
For example, nine agencies reported no homicides at all in the five years analyzed. So agencies tying as those least likely for murders are: Alpine/Highland Police, Cache County Sheriff, Centerville Police, Farmington Police, Kaysville Police, North Ogden Police, Payson Police, Spanish Fork Police and the Uintah County Sheriff.
Emery County was the least likely spot for rape or car theft.
Farmington was the least likely spot for burglary or arson.
The Box Elder County Sheriff's Office reported the lowest rate of aggravated assaults. North Ogden was the least likely spot for robberies (using a threat of violence). And Syracuse was the least likely place for larcenies (without the threat of violence).
Don't blame police?
Wadman, the Weber State criminal justice professor and former police chief, said police generally do not deserve blame or credit for crime rates — their job is to catch criminals after a crime is committed.
He said certain demographic groups in the population are known to commit most crimes. So cities with more people in those groups tend to have more crime.
"If you have high poverty rates, high rates of single-parent families without a father in the home and a high high school dropout rate, you are going to have a high crime rate," Wadman said. Also, he said most criminals are male, and most are between the ages of 16 and 25. Crime also tends to be higher in places with high unemployment, among many other factors.
The Morning News compared Utah crime rates with the rates of some of those social categories, where available. Indeed, cities with high crime almost universally had high rates in those demographics. Cities with little crime usually had few people in those groups.
Sometimes even the weather affects crime, and Wadman said police obviously do not control that. "When I was the police chief of Omaha, the number of rapes in one month fell from 20 in one year to six the next year.... What's the difference? The weather. The second year the weather was very cold, and not many people were out jogging or at the parks."
Wadman said the way to truly attack crime may be to address poverty, dropping out of school, the challenges of single parents and similar social problems. "But it is difficult and takes time," he said. It also often may not be popular politically.
"Imagine a politician who says, 'I have recognized that it is social ills in society that cause crime. So I will work to deal with poverty, single-parent families and joblessness.' Imagine he is running against someone who says, 'These criminals are no good scoundrels, and I will make sure they are punished soundly.... Who do you think will be elected?" Wadman said.
To those who say it may be too expensive to address social ills with greater educational opportunities or other alternatives, he said, "It costs more to lock up a prisoner at the Utah State Prison for a year than it does to send someone to Weber State, including tuition, books, room and board."
Wadman also notes that the United States has the highest rate of prisoners among its population of any country in the world. He said it ranks No. 3 in the world for its rate of executions behind China and the Congo — and just ahead of No. 4 Iran.
E-mail: lee@desnews.com; preavy@desnews.com