Can Utah etch out another close one at home? Or will Ute coach Kyle Whittingham chip out some breathing room for his senior class against Arizona with a comfortable win? Can BYU learn anything from playing Savannah State?
Once again, the Pac-12 is delivering a classic showdown late in the season and this time it boils down to an interesting battle of a great offense against a superior defense.
Arizona is like a kid on a skateboard, zipping here and there, gliding over and around bumps and runs. Utah is the fisherman with the giant net, gobbling up quarterbacks.
Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez proved last week his team is capable of going down to the wire and winning a close, breathtaking game as the Wildcats secured a 27-26 victory over Washington. He has two wins on final plays. Meanwhile, last-second overtime thrillers have become the working brand with the Utes. Utah has had six games decided by six points or less.
So this could certainly boil down to one or two key plays and may go into overtime. Arizona’s defense does yield some run yardage; look for Devontae Booker to cover turf at about 6 yards per tote.
Arizona is averaging 492 yards to Utah’s 367, but the scoring difference is four points, 35-31 in favor of Arizona. The Wildcats did beat Oregon 31-24.
Arizona’s freshman QB, Anu Solomon, has not yet faced the kind of pressure and rush he’ll see Saturday; and he’s nursing a sore ankle.
Aside from senior day blankets Saturday, it will be tough for BYU to learn much about its readiness for its season-ending game at Cal.
I’d like to see BYU trend away from run plays on first downs. It’s a mentality built from the speed option, establishing the run to free up the QB and tailback and pass. But with this offense, it seems like calling runs on first down is getting BYU a lot of second-and-nines or second-and-10s.
If you look at the Cougars' offensive possessions against Virginia and UNLV (both wins), BYU’s offense worked more efficiently off a pass-first mentality. BYU got to a new set of downs at a 91 percent rate when it went pass-first against Virginia. BYU converted possessions with extra downs 100 percent of the time against the Wolf Pack when it passed first. Conversely, with a run-first plan against Virginia on nine possessions, the conversion was 69 percent; in 11 run-first possessions in the UNLV game, it was 58 percent.
With receiver Mitch Mathews, it seems like a no-brainer to get to a second-and-four or second-and-five every first down, which completely changes the play-calling dynamic for BYU’s offense.
Why is this important? Because at Cal, if BYU’s futility on first downs continues with squandered run plays, offensive coordinator Robert Anae will fall way short of keeping up with the Bear offense, one of the best in the country.
Prediction time.
Losers I picked to win last week include Nebraska, Mississippi State, Auburn, LSU and Arizona State.
This week’s prognostications:
Utah State 24, San Jose State 10: Aggie defense simply capable to write the script.
Nebraska 28, Minnesota 21: Look for the 'Huskers to flex some muscle.
Harvard over Yale: Eggheads clash and Harvard uses more grey matter effectively.
Mississippi 34, Arkansas 14: Ole Miss has too much firepower.
Wisconsin 32, Iowa 21: Gary Andersen heading down the wire? Good.
Notre Dame 28, Louisville 24: Battle of 7-3 teams. Irish win trenches.
Northern Arizona 24, SUU 21: Hoping for Thunderbird win, but there are trends.
Stanford 28, California 27: Bears meet league’s best defense.
Idaho State 21, Weber State 17: Again, what is the name of that teacher?
Southern Cal 24, UCLA 21: I’ll take Steve Sarkisian in a city battle.
Boise State 34, Wyoming 21: Broncos win battle of new border war.
Washington 27, Oregon State 24: Huskies making a late run in Northwest.
Utah 28, Arizona 27: Utah defense is the difference.
BYU 57, Savannah State 3: How long will Christian Stewart play?
Last week 9-5; Overall 103-49 (.677).
Dick Harmon, Deseret News sports columnist, can be found on Twitter as Harmonwrites and can be contacted at dharmon@desnews.com.