SALT LAKE CITY — I, like many Americans, was deeply saddened when Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election. I saw great potential in his candidacy to be our nation's political leader. His loss made me wonder whether such a person could indeed be elected president.
Now that Romney is taking steps to run for president again in 2016, what must Romney do to win?
Some skeptics say that he will never be president. Fewer voices now say that his religion somehow disqualifies him. But there always seems to be some other reason why pundits declare a particular candidate "cannot win." Before Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, for example, the most recent senator to move directly to the Oval Office was John F. Kennedy, in 1960.
Those who say that presidential losers don't have second or third chances are ignoring even more recent history. President Nixon won in 1968 after having lost in 1960. President Reagan ran campaigns in 1968 and 1976 before ultimately being nominated and elected in 1980.
Even though Romney's name recognition is high, many say the negatives from his past political activities remain entrenched in the minds of potential voters. This argument is rarely made against the woman, Hilary Clinton, who is all-but-certain to be the Democratic Party nominee.
My worry is that Romney has not yet articulated a vision of what America must do to prosper and thrive. Skillful managers rarely win presidential elections. Even after his previous losses, in 2008 and 2012, Romney has done precious little to build the intellectual infrastructure of think tanks, advocacy groups, media organs and a technology-adept party apparatus that are necessary to secure political victory. Both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton worked tirelessly to those ends.
In urging presidential candidates to be more "ideological," I am not necessarily urging them to be further to the right, or to the left, on the political spectrum.
For example, President Clinton successfully positioned himself as the ideological champion of a reformed Democratic Party. His vision of the party was pro-free trade: About helping displaced workers to receive re-training and improve economic opportunities, while also staking out centrist positions on foreign policy and social issues like welfare reform.
The members of the Republican Party can no longer be seen as standing along the spectrum from conservative to moderate. As pollster Nate Silver of 538 articulates in an insightful blog post about Romney, the party is a Venn diagram of five interlocking circles of influence: establishment, moderate, Christian conservative, libertarian and tea party.
Silver puts Mitt Romney in the center of the establishment circle, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at the intersection of moderate and establishment circles, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at the center of the tea party circle and former presidential candidates Huckabee and Rick Santorum in the Christian conservative camp.
"The GOP’s dynamics are more complex than a simple left-right spectrum would imply," said Silver. "Some wings overlap more with others."
Suppose Bush or Romney (or another promising potential candidate like Ohio Gov. Tim Kasich) begins to capture momentum as the anointed candidate of the establishment and of moderates. Would a challenger from the party's multiple “extremes” pull the center of the party in the direction of libertarian, tea party or Christian conservative voters?
To ask that question is to demonstrate the need to connect with as many voters as possible wherever they are. You need to get them to commit to you, stand with you and be willing to follow you. It is easier for voters to follow a political leader when they have a vision of where you will take them at the end of that journey. That ideological vision needs be built out right now.
I worry much less about repeating the mistakes of 2012. The comment about the 47 percent will be overcome by an enhanced demonstration of empathy as Romney allows others to tout — in highly personal terms — his service in business, in church, in government and in the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics.
Low levels of support from Latinos will be overcome by doing more to move the party toward a pro-immigrant position. Poor polling and a neglectful attitude toward early voting, and get-out-the-vote efforts, will be overcome once the problem is acknowledged and addressed — just as any skillful manager would.
But if Romney neglects the necessary work of building the institutions and articulating the narrative for what the Republican Party looks like for next generation of voters, then he will indeed fail to achieve political victory.
Drew Clark can be reached via email: drew@drewclark.com, or on Twitter @drewclark, or at www.utahbreakfast.com.