With the ascension of Utah’s congressional delegation to high-profile positions, and with one of our favorite (adopted) sons’ continued visibility in the 2016 presidential race, our state is in the middle of discussions about the future of the Republican Party. We review the ramifications.
What are the dynamics at play in the GOP search for a champion who can defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton? Why does Utah have a role?
Pignanelli: ”In every election in American history both parties have their clichés. The party that has the clichés that ring true wins." — Speaker Newt Gingrich
The GOP mascot is the elephant, but most party activists are not blessed with the legendary memory of a pachyderm. Republicans are seeking a candidate who appeals to the conservative base and the moneyed establishment. But they are forgetting the most important factor to defeat Hillary or any Democrat in a presidential election: likability (or at least a common touch). Every successful Republican presidential aspirant in the modern era was “better liked” or perceived as more “in touch.” The smart strategists understand the paramount importance of this characteristic and are desperately seeking that rare animal: the "nice guy" conservative who avoids snarling.
Utah will play an indirect but crucial role in the 2016 elections. The GOP controls Congress. Every member of the Utah delegation holds a key role in the national government. Should their colleagues allow them to succeed, our federal lawmakers will establish the foundation for a GOP sweep. If the public perceives their national lawmakers are solving problems and improving their lives, Republicans reap the rewards in 2016.
Webb: The GOP nomination fight is wide open. It will be volatile, unpredictable, tumultuous and incredibly expensive. Anything can happen. Utah’s congressional delegation won’t determine the eventual nominee, but in their leadership roles they can help define and brand the Republican Party — for better or for worse. Unfortunately, they’re not off to a great start, with the House voting for draconian immigration policies. How much have they already damaged the Republican brand with Hispanics?
By forging reasonable solutions to the nation’s problems, the Republican Congress has an opportunity to clear a path for the eventual GOP nominee. But if, instead, they plant land mines in the path, they will help Clinton win next year.
Utah supporters of Mitt Romney are excited that he is seriously considering a third try for the presidency. Will their dream of a President Romney come true or be crushed?
Pignanelli: For the sake of their beloved Mitt, Romneyites need to stop this foolish endeavor. Since the 2012 election, politicos have engaged in the whimsical dreaming of “what might have been” if Romney was elected. This is expected and even fun for Romney. But at the urging of close supporters, Gov. Romney expressed a deep interest in a 2016 run. The overall response outside Utah is harsh. Establishment and insider Republicans who understand the disastrous consequences of Romney III are unsheathing the long knives and carving sections of his flesh. If you love him … stop the prodding.
Webb: I’d love to see Romney win. But I’m afraid his time is past. He’s clearly not going to be embraced as the savior of the Republican Party. The response to his renewed interest in the race has been decidedly underwhelming. There will be no quick coronation. It will be a hard, relentless, marathon slog to the nomination, through caucuses and primaries and a thousand speeches and a million fundraising calls. Once again, we’ll see the “flavor of the week” syndrome as numerous candidates rise and fall.
Certainly, Romney will be able to raise money, and that’s a big deal. He has great name ID. He’s tried twice before and has experience. I hope voters have concluded that he’s a good guy. But his old weaknesses will reassert themselves. What’s different this time? His younger competitors will argue that a new generation of leadership is necessary, especially in contrast to Hillary Clinton. I’d like to see Romney serve as senior statesman, traveling the country in support of mainstream GOP candidates and causes. I’m afraid the third time’s not the charm.
It’s very early, but who will be the 2016 Republican nominee for president?
Pignanelli: Warning to readers: If in 2015 any person tells you who will be on the ballot in the 2016 election, immediately check your wallet or purse. Their statement is a ruse to distract you. No rational person (or unstable one) has a clue about the upcoming presidential caucuses and primaries. Thank goodness!
Webb: Wishfully thinking (and Frank’s ramblings to the contrary) — Jeb Bush.
Republican LaVarr Webb is a political consultant and lobbyist. Previously he was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. Email: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Pignanelli served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as minority leader. His spouse, D’Arcy Dixon Pignanelli, is a state tax commissioner. Email: frankp@xmission.com.