For political junkies like me, few things are more exhilarating than following the twists and turns, debates and debacles of Utah’s 45-day legislative session. It is a glorious yet distressing process, distractingly chaotic and still oddly comforting at the same time. It is a testament to governance “of the people, by the people, for the people,” with all that this entails. I absolutely love it!
Here are my predictions for Utah’s 2015 legislative session. Keep in mind that I think this is what will happen, not necessarily what should happen. Rest assured that I will have plenty to say as the legislative process unfolds. Here goes:
• Gov. Gary Herbert’s full-court press on his HealthyUtah proposal will prompt the Legislature to pass some sort of Medicaid expansion, at the minimum extending Medicaid coverage to the “medically frail.”
• Sen. Stephen Urquhart’s sexual orientation non-discrimination legislation will finally be heard and debated — but will not pass this year; legislators will not rush into this one given the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to take up gay marriage in 2015 and the LDS Church’s public statement that non-discrimination legislation should be carefully balanced with legislation protecting religions liberties.
• Sen. Scott Jenkins’ proposal to amend the Utah Constitution to prohibit the infringement on the right of political parties to choose their nominees for political office will pass with the requisite two-thirds majorities in both chambers and will be on the 2016 statewide ballot.
• Public education will receive a significant funding increase, but not the 6.5 percent proposed by the governor; legislators will refuse to accept the governor’s proposal to reallocate funds earmarked for transportation to public education; once again, legislators will look like the bad guys despite appropriating record amounts to public education.
• The decision on relocating the state prison will be pushed off for another year; it is too hot to handle right now.
• The Legislature will not choose to raise gas taxes outright; instead it will take the opportunity provided by low gas prices to migrate away from a “cents-per-gallon” tax to a percentage tax.
• The Legislature will honor the late Speaker Becky Lockhart by appropriating money to pilot a digital-learning initiative in our public schools.
• The 7-foot-high wall shielding restaurant diners from liquor dispensing — the so-called “Zion Curtain” — will survive this session; next year, sans Sen. John Valentine, all bets are off.
• Legislators will refuse to raise income taxes; it’s just not going to happen.
• Legislators will choose to tax e-cigarettes with the same gusto that they tax traditional cigarettes; they are too tempting a target for a whole host of reasons.
• Legislators, lobbyists and department heads alike will grumble about a protracted appropriations process, but requiring sub-appropriations committees to do the hard work of identifying spending priorities will lead, as it invariably does, to a well-crafted, fiscally prudent budget; Executive Appropriations chairmen Sen. Lyle Hillyard and Rep. Dean Sanpei, will do an excellent job of running the appropriations process.
• Daylight savings time will survive in Utah, but powdered alcohol will not.
• Legislators will name the golden retriever as the state domestic animal, teaching the elementary school class that asked for the designation that the Legislature just might pass anything requested of them as long as it does not cost any money.
• A couple of legislators will try to slip through a bill or two that feathers their own particular nest, but their fellow legislators, armed with information from a diligent press corps, will shut them down hard and fast.
• Finally, some legislator will propose some sort of off the wall legislation that will make every other legislator look crazy, simply by association.
I wish my friends and former colleagues the best of success this legislative session.
Dan Liljenquist is a former state senator and former U.S. Senate candidate.