It’s not ESPN, The New York Times, or even Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, just a website called CoachesHotSeat.com. Still, somebody has devoted life, liberty and the pursuit of snoopiness to ranking 127 college football coaches, in order of their chances of getting fired.
Donald Trump has nothing on these people.
The rankings go from the most tenuous coach (Paul Rhoads, Iowa State) to the most unimpeachable (Urban Meyer, Ohio State). With Thursday being the first day of fall camp, I decided to check Hot Seat’s ranking on coaches in Utah.
It says they’re all as secure as Fort Knox.
BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall is rated the 90th most likely to take the fall, while Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is No. 105 and USU’s Matt Wells is No. 106.
LeBron James is more inclined to lose his job.
Wells is the least probable casualty, even if his team goes 0-12. With two bowl wins in two seasons at USU, and a contract through 2019, he has goodwill to burn.
The only way he’s leaving is if he quits.
But Whittingham and Mendenhall, in my mind, are less safe than the Hot Seat believes. It rates them both deep in “safe for now” territory. I’m not so confident. A nosedive season would be a serious issue for either coach. Last year was the first time the Utes reached .500 in Pac-12 play (5-4), though Utah did finish the season ranked No. 21.
BYU has been a paragon of elevated mediocrity, lately, in spite of making 10 consecutive bowl appearances.
Beating Texas on consecutive years — even a down-and-out Texas — is something for Mendenhall to hang his hat on. So is beating UCLA, USC, Stanford and Michigan in the same year, which Utah did in 2014.
But which coach is under the most pressure to win this year? Or is there any pressure?
Of course there is.
BYU says it’s not a mid-major program but keeps losing to them. Utah is just one season removed from back-to-back 5-7 years.
Mendenhall’s contract goes through 2016. Whittingham is under contract through 2018 and is on this year’s Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year watch list.
Still, I figure Whittingham stands the highest chance of imperilment.
Athletics director Chris Hill has poured money into facility improvements, in order to make the Utes a conference contender. He expects Utah to be top 25 in its major sports, which it was in 2014-15. But a down year would drastically change things. It would mean a losing conference record in four of five years.
Then there’s Mendenhall. He isn’t meeting all fans’ expectations, but he is what the administration wants. Though just 9-10 against power conference teams since going independent in 2011 (and 1-5 combined against regional rivals Utah and Boise State), he gladly does LDS firesides on road trips. Meanwhile, NCAA sanctions are as foreign to him as hard alcohol. He’s still winning considerably more games than he loses.
In spite of setbacks, both coaches come into 2015 with a good argument for sticking around. Still, it’s a good thing the season starts in less than a month. Off-season drama has done nothing but highlight their vulnerability.
For BYU, the Miami Beach Bowl ended in an embarrassing fight with Memphis. Though it wasn’t necessarily incited by the Cougars, there seemed a certain glee that accompanied news coverage of the event.
The other embarrassment to Mendenhall was the arrest of prized recruit Charles West, who in February was charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. His attorney says the facts don’t support the accusations.
In July, West was shot in the arm while playing basketball on an outdoor court.
BYU and its ownership can live with not winning every game. It can live with independence, too, if necessary. But it can’t tolerate bad publicity.
A few more of those and Mendenhall could be calling Gary Crowton for consolation.
Whittingham knows Mendenhall’s pain. One of Utah’s players, Dominique Hatfield, was charged with aggravated robbery in July but charges were dropped. This week he was charged with assault in a separate incident.
Hatfield was dismissed from the team last month.
Whittingham has contractual security, but every agreement has termination clauses. The stakes are high in the Pac-12. If after five years in the conference the Utes are a doormat, it will be cause for high concern.
Additionally, there were issues between Whittingham and athletics director Chris Hill. The two drove the news cycle for a week last winter. Whittingham was reportedly upset that Hill had let the 2014 season begin without extending coaching contracts. Hill apparently believed he couldn’t do so, because the Utes had won just five games in each of the previous two years.
It’s wrong to say the two are openly feuding, but safe to say they’re not exchanging gift baskets.
Both teams will probably be good this year, which would render such speculation moot. But if a firing occurs, Whittingham is slightly more likely to be out. He makes $2.6 million this year, plus incentives.
As scripture says, where much is given, much is expected. As Spiderman’s uncle says, with great power comes great responsibility.
And as the laws of economics say, with a great paycheck comes great demands.
Email: rock@desnews.com; Twitter: @therockmonster; Blog: Rockmonster Unplugged