Projected score: Boise State 30, BYU 20
The BYU football program is struggling right now, and it doesn't appear it will be getting better anytime soon. It's unfortunate because Boise State is bringing in a team that is very beatable this year. The Cougars have a lot to fix to take advantage of the Broncos' weaknesses. Here's a look at how things could play out in tonight's game.
When BYU has the ball
No one knows who will be taking snaps from under center for BYU this evening. Will Tanner Mangum be able to play effectively with a high-ankle sprain? Will Koy Detmer be given another chance to lead the Cougar offense? Or will the coaches take the redshirt off freshmen Kody Wilstead or Joe Critchlow. Regardless, there are so many other issues with this offense right now, it may not matter. The fact is BYU is trying to play a smash-mouth, pro-style offense with players more suited to play the spread.
BYU continues to be one of the least efficient and explosive offenses in college football. However, there were some encouraging signs last week when BYU connected on more chunk passing plays than it has all season. But that was with Beau Hoge at quarterback. Hoge will now be unavailable because of the apparent concussion he suffered.
The BYU running game also showed signs of life last week with Ula Tolutau and Squally Canda running hard and hitting their holes decisively. The BYU run game will need to be sharp against a solid Boise State run defense.
BYU's turnovers in the passing game are disconcerting coming into this matchup because Boise State has a secondary that is decent at wreaking havoc for opposing receivers. That being said, the Bronco defense isn't spectacular and is nowhere near the level of LSU, Utah or Wisconsin. But it is certainly capable of a Utah State-type performance or better against a BYU offense still struggling to find its identity. The reality is Cougar fans may need to remain patient with an offense that may take a year or two more to get the right parts and gel.
When Boise State has the ball
BYU's defense is pretty pedestrian right now, but there is still potential for this unit to turn things around more quickly than its offensive counterpart. Boise State's offense isn't very efficient or explosive either, although it is still better than BYU's offense, and it has had a hard time finishing drives with points.
Boise State quarterback Brett Rypien has yet to throw a touchdown pass this year, but a lot of that is due to ineptness in the Bronco receiving corps where wideout Cedrick Wilson is the only bright spot, but he is a big play threat. The Broncos will push the tempo and test the perimeter of BYU's defense.
The Bronco running game is worse than its pass game, with backup mobile quarterback Montell Cozart leading the Broncos in rushing with over 200 yards. But the Broncos will give the Cougar defense a lot to prepare for given their multiple looks. And, of course, defenses always have to have a head on their swivel for Boise State's trick plays. All of this will be much harder if BYU middle linebacker Butch Pau'u cannot play due to a hand injury.
When the ball is kicked
Boise State is near-elite in the special teams department with a reliable field goal kicker and solid punting and kickoff and punt return and coverage units.
BYU, on the other hand, has been a huge disappointment on special teams, with the punting, punt coverage and field goal blocking being the only real bright spots.
Prediction
It could be another long night for Cougar fans. While Boise State is down, it is still better than BYU on paper. But games aren't played on paper, so Cougar Nation can only hope Boise State is a paper tiger — or would that be, er, paper bronco?