The battle for the Old Wagon Wheel should be an entertaining one, if nothing else, for BYU fans this week. While the outcome is far from certain, one would expect the Cougars to look sharper coming off a much-needed bye week, while the Aggies are starting to hum a little bit.
When BYU has the ball
BYU continues to have one of the least-efficient and least-explosive offenses in college football. The Cougars are equally ineffective running and passing the ball.
Utah State's defense is below average and equally mediocre against both the pass and run. Without a doubt, this will be the easiest defense BYU has faced since Portland State in Week 1, but that game didn't go so well offensively for the Cougars either.
The Aggies are weaker in the front seven than they are in the secondary, so if the Cougar offensive line can get a push in the run game and give Beau Hoge time in the pocket, the Cougars might have success. But the pass game will be dependent on BYU's receivers getting open and Hoge being on the same page with them in reading both the defense and each other. Interestingly, arguably the Aggies' best defender is BYU transfer safety Dallin Leavitt.
In any event, the Aggie defense is better than the Cougar offense is right now. Perhaps the bye week will change that. Expect the Cougars to put a few more points on the board this week than they have been.
When Utah State has the ball
The Cougar defense has not lived up to its billing and several kinks in the armor have been revealed the last few weeks. For one, the Cougars are allowing way too many completed passes. However, the defense is still markedly better than the Cougar offense right now and has played well enough to keep the Cougars close in two of their three losses this year.
While BYU hasn't been stellar against the run, it has made enough big plays there to be somewhat effective. Utah State is mediocre in the run game with diminutive Eltoro Allen and LaJuan Hunt carrying the rock. But the run game becomes dangerous when quarterback Kent Myers keeps it. He is Utah State's leading rusher at over 9 yards per carry.
Myers is not nearly as good at passing as he is running, but he is completing passes at a 67 percent clip. But his 6 yards per pass attempt means he is not pushing the ball downfield much, similar to BYU's pass game. Utah State has spread the ball around to 16 receivers this year with four having double-digit receptions. Two tight ends have caught nine passes apiece.
The Cougar defense will be challenged by the Aggie pass game. However, given the Aggies' lack of passing explosiveness, the Cougars may want to be a little more risky on defense and bring more pressure while playing man-to-man coverage in the secondary.
When the ball is kicked
Utah State has a well above average special teams unit. The Aggies' place-kicker has been perfect all year, the punter gets the job done and the coverage and return units have been solid.
BYU is a different story and is a classic case of Jekyll and Hyde. The Cougars are solid enough in coverage and kick returns, but they struggle in the kicking game and on punt returns, where they rank near the bottom of every important measurement.
The Aggies should have the upper hand in the special teams area, and that could be a deciding factor in what looks to be a closely contested matchup.
Prediction
BYU certainly has a fighting chance in this one and a lot will depend on the improvement of the offense during the bye week. BYU's defense is susceptible to some of Utah State's offensive strengths, but if BYU's offense can come around, the Cougars should at least have a shot to win a close one at the end. Again, the deciding factor could be special teams play.
Projected score: Utah State 28, BYU 21